2019 Auto Club 400 Picks & Predictions – Value Bets at Auto Club Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series makes its lone stop of the year at Auto Club Speedway this weekend. The 2-mile oval will play host to Sunday’s Auto Club 400, and while the 2-mile tracks don’t typically provide a lot of upsets, NASCAR’s new rules package will serve as a wild card this weekend.
Yes, we’ve seen this version of the package in action at Las Vegas, and for the most part, it didn’t change much on race day. However, this will be the first time it has been used on a 2-mile track, and the long straightaways could make the draft a big factor. At the very least, it creates an element of uncertainty, which means there is no better time to take a chance someone pulling off the upset.
Before you put any money down, check out all of my favorite value bets and favorite longshots for Sunday’s Auto Club 400. Also, check out Sunday’s 2019 Auto Club 400 odds.
2019 Auto Club 400 Picks & Predictions: Auto Club Speedway
Value Bets
Kurt Busch (20/1)
He hasn’t missed a beat with his offseason move to Chip Ganassi Racing, and Busch has finished seventh or better in all three races since Daytona, leading laps at Atlanta and Las Vegas. He also has five straight top-15 finishes at the 2-mile tracks, and he has a combined four wins at Auto Club and Michigan. With momentum and a great track history on his side, you have to like Busch at 20/1.
Chase Elliott (25/1)
I know it’s been a lackluster start to the year for Elliott, but there’s nothing wrong with buying a blue-chip stock while its value is down. Don’t forget that Elliott won three races a year ago, and he has eight top-10 finishes in nine career Cup starts at 2-mile ovals, including three runner-up finishes. You won’t find a driver with his upside available at 25/1 odds very often. I suggest trying to take advantage.
Austin Dillon (80/1)
Most weeks, I like to make fun of Dillon for putting up mediocre numbers in top-level equipment, but the 2-mile tracks have been good to him. He has five top-10s in the last 10 races, including three in his last four starts. Dillon has also led laps in three races during that stretch, and he finished fourth at Michigan last August. I don’t say this very often, but Dillon is worth a look at 80/1 this weekend.
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Sleeper Specials
Ryan Newman (100/1)
He’s been clicking off top-15 finishes with his new team, and he also has seven top-15s in the last 10 races at 2-mile tracks. No, he isn’t going to show up with a car that can win Sunday on pure speed, but Newman is one of the few drivers getting long odds who is consistently within striking distance at this type of track. Between the unknowns of the new rules package and the potential for a strategy call, I don’t mind throwing a small bet on Newman.
Chris Buescher (200/1)
I’m dipping into the serious Cinderellas, but after toiling in the back half the field for his first few seasons in the Cup Series, Buescher seems to have found a little bit of speed. He has finished 18th or better in all three races at Daytona, picking up a top-10 finish at Atlanta and logging the best Phoenix finish of his career last weekend. Buescher could at least be close enough to the front to have a puncher’s chance at a huge upset with a bold strategy call or lucky break.
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