2019 Auto Club 400 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Auto Club Speedway: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series stays on the West Coast this weekend with a trip to Auto Club Speedway. The 2-mile oval will host Sunday’s Auto Club 400, and the race will be the first of three this season at tracks with the 2-mile layout.
While the wide surface of Auto Club provides multiple grooves to race, the long straightaways bring horsepower into play and make ACS a momentum track. Money can buy speed, so it’s not surprising that the top organizations and drivers have excelled here over the years.
The new rules package that limits horsepower being used this year could potentially change that, but if the races at Atlanta and Las Vegas showed us anything, it’s that the juggernaut teams are still going to remain on top of the mountain.
With that in mind, here is a closer look at my favorites to bet this weekend and the big names that I would avoid in Sunday’s Auto Club 400.
2019 Auto Club 400 Odds & Predictions: ISM Raceway
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (9/2)
He’s off to a blazing start in 2019, posting a 3.0 average finish over the first three races and picking up the win last weekend at Phoenix. Look for the strong start to continue Sunday at Auto Club where Busch led 62 laps and finished third a year ago. He is a three-time winner here for his career and a four-time winner at 2-mile ovals. Last year, Busch finished fourth or better in all three races at the 2-milers, leading 20-plus laps in two of those starts.
Kevin Harvick (9/2)
While he crashed out of last year’s race at Auto Club, Harvick had a car capable of winning that race. He’s also tied for the series lead with six top-five finishes in the last 10 races at 2-mile tracks, and he has finished either first or second four times in that span. It’s also worth noting that despite the crash at Auto Club, Harvick still led a series-best 157 laps at the 2-mile ovals in 2018.
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Martin Truex Jr. (6/1)
Truex is the defending winner of this weekend’s race after leading a race-high 125 laps in an impressive win a year ago. Of course, he is no stranger to running up front at the 2-mile ovals, and over the last 10 races, his 380 laps led are the most in the series. Truex has led 20-plus laps six times in that span, leading 50-plus laps in four of the last six races. You know you’ll have a shot at winning if you back Truex Sunday.
Kyle Larson (6/1)
The 2-mile tracks have been his bread and butter, and Larson has won four of the last seven races at Auto Club and Michigan, logging six finishes of third or better in the last eight races at these tracks. He was the runner-up at Auto Club last year, and in 2017, he led a race-high 110 laps here on his way to the win. I don’t mind investing heavily in Larson this weekend.
Big Names to Avoid
Joey Logano (6/1)
There’s no doubt that Logano has been consistent at the 2-mile tracks like Auto Club, and he actually leads all drivers with nine top-10s in the last 10 races at these types of tracks. On the flip side, he hasn’t been a dominant force at the front of the field, and in six races at 2-mile tracks over the past two seasons, he has led just 11 laps combined. For the same odds, Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson are much more appealing betting options.
Aric Almirola (18/1)
There’s a big gap from four drivers currently getting 6/1 odds to win and the next group on the board. At 18/1, Almirola is in the latter, tied for the seventh-best odds to win Sunday, but even with his strong start to 2019, those odds seem overly optimistic. Even in his breakout 2018 campaign, Almirola finished with just four top-five finishes. He was solid at the 2-milers last year, finishing 12th, 11th and seventh, but he doesn’t have the resume of someone who should be among the favorites to win Sunday. I’d much rather have Ryan Blaney or Denny Hamlin for the same odds.
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2019 Auto Club 400 Betting
2019 Auto Club 400 – Odds To Win @ ISM Raceway
Kevin Harvick +500
Kyle Busch +500
Brad Keselowski +600
Joey Logano +600
Kyle Larson +700
Martin Truex Jr +700
Denny Hamlin +1500
Chase Elliott +2000
Clint Bowyer +2000
Aric Almirola +2000
Ryan Blaney +2000
Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Ryan Blaney +2000
Austin Dillon +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +5000
Jimmie Johnson +5000
Daniel Suarez +7500
Ryan Newman +10000
William Byron +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Daniel Hemric +10000
Field +3000
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