2019 AAA Texas 500 Odds & Predictions – Favorites & Bad Bets at Texas Motor Speedway: The 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is hitting its home stretch, and just three races remain as series returns to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend. Sunday’s AAA Texas 500 is also the second race in the Round of 8 of the playoffs, and with seven drivers fighting for the final three spots in the Championship 4, we should have a pressure-packed race on our hands.
The return trip to Texas also happens to be the 10th race of the year at a mile-and-a-half oval, and more than any other type of track on the schedule, these high-speed intermediate ovals seem to favor the top drivers from the top teams. Need proof? The six drivers who have scored the most points in through the first nine races at 1.5-mile tracks are all among the eight drivers still alive in the playoffs.
Yes, you will see some unexpected drivers steal decent finishes at tracks like Texas, but when it comes to actually winning the race, it is usually a household name celebrating in victory lane, or at least a driver from one of the premier teams in the sport. With the playoffs in full swing and a shot at title up for grabs, I definitely don’t see that trend changing Sunday at Texas Motor Speedway. If you are trying to pick the winner, I recommend investing heavily in the favorites for the AAA Texas 500.
2019 AAA Texas 500 Odds & Predictions: Favorites & Bad Bets at Texas Motor Speedway
The Favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
He has shown plenty of speed at the 1.5-mile tracks this year, and in addition to scoring the second-most points, Truex is tied for the series lead with two wins and six top-10s in those nine races. More importantly, he has taken his performance to another level since the playoffs began. Truex has led laps and finished in the top 10 in six of the seven postseason races, winning three times. Nobody is running better than Truex is right now.
Kevin Harvick (7/1)
No, he still hasn’t won a race at a 1.5-mile track in 2019, but that stat is more than a little misleading. He has actually scored the most points and led the most laps in the nine races at mile-and-a-half ovals this year, leading more than 40 laps five times and more than 80 laps three times. Harvick has also won the fall race at Texas in each of the last two seasons, and he has finished in the top 10 in his last 10 starts at the track, finishing third or better six times in that stretch. At 7/1, he is my favorite value among the favorites.
Denny Hamlin (7/1)
Hamlin won the spring race at Texas back in March, and he has been solid at the mile-and-a-half tracks all year. He ranks fifth in points scored and third in laps led in the nine races, leading laps in each of the last five. In fact, Hamlin was dominant the las time the series visited a 1.5-mile oval, leading a race-high 153 laps in a win at Kansas. Coming off that performance, you have to love his chances of completing a season sweep at Texas this weekend.
Bad Bets
&nsbp;
Kyle Busch (5/1)
I am a firm believer that Busch is the best driver in the series today, but the fact that he is listed as a co-favorite to win this weekend is ridiculous. He is in the middle of one of his worst stretches in recent memory, and he has gone 19 starts without winning a race. Not to mention the fact that he hasn’t won a race at a 1.5-mile track all year, and he is coming off a lackluster run at a Martinsville track where he had been nothing short of dominant for the last five years. Busch is in a slump, plain and simple. There’s no value here.
BET ON NASCAR at USA’s #1 Betting Site – BOVADA SPORTSBOOK!
Get weekly Bovada NASCAR betting odds updated LIVE directly on NSAwins.com!
2019 AAA Texas 500 Odds
Denny Hamlin #11 +300
Kevin Harvick #4 +300
Kyle Busch #18 +500
Martin Truex Jr. #19 +600
Kyle Larson #42 +1000
Kurt Busch #1 +1100
Brad Keselowski #2 +1300
Erik Jones #20 +1300
Joey Logano #22 +1700
Chase Elliott #9 +1800
Clint Bowyer #14 +1900
Ryan Blaney #12 +2200
Aric Almirola #10 +2500
Daniel Suarez #41 +3000
William Byron #24 +3000
Alex Bowman #88 +3500
Jimmie Johnson #48 +5500
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. #17 +8800
Matt DiBenedetto #95 +10000
Ryan Newman #6 +15000
Chris Buescher #37 +25000
Austin Dillon #3 +27500
Paul Menard #21 +32500
Daniel Hemric #8 +45000
Ryan Preece #47 +75000
Darrell Wallace Jr. #43 +100000
Michael McDowell #34 +100000
Ty Dillon #13 +100000
David Ragan #38 +150000
John H. Nemechek #36 +250000
Landon Cassill #00 +400000
Reed Sorenson #15 +400000
Ross Chastain #27 +400000
Corey LaJoie #32 +500000
Garrett Smithely #52 +500000
JJ Yeley #53 +500000
Josh Bilicki #51 +500000
Parker Kligerman #96 +500000
Quin Houff #77 +500000
Timmy Hill #66 +500000