2018 XFINTIY Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers for the California 300: The NASCAR XFINITY Series is finishing up its West Coast swing this weekend at Auto Club Speedway, and while we are dealing with the fifth straight companion event to open the season, the field isn’t as stacked as it has been recently.
Yes, there are still some Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series drivers in the field, but only Joey Logano has a clear advantage over the top series regulars. With a weaker field, Saturday’s California 300 could be the perfect time to take a shot on a value bet or longshot.
The Favorite
Joey Logano (+130)
You aren’t going to win much money by betting on Logano, but he deserves to be the overwhelming favorite this weekend. He has a 3.8 average finish in nine XFINITY Series starts at Auto Club, winning twice and leading at least 70 laps in his last three starts at the track. Throw in the fact that he is easily the most decorated and accomplished driver in the field, and Logano could dominate this one from start to finish.
Christopher Bell (+300)
If you are looking for the next potential star in NASCAR, Bell has to be the frontrunner. He’s also the No. 1 alternative to Joey Logano. The rookie has finished fourth or better in all three races since Daytona, leading laps and finishing ahead of Cup regulars in all three races. Bell will have a real shot at the win Saturday, and he’ll pay you a little better than Logano.
Value Bets
Ryan Preece (+800)
Preece will be making his first XFINITY Series start on 2018, but he’ll be in Joe Gibbs Racing equipment, and he showed last year that he can deliver when driving for a top team. He finished in the Top 5 in all four of his starts with JGR in 2017, winning at Iowa and leading multiple laps three times. If you don’t want to go with one of the favorites, Preece is a nice alternative.
Elliott Sadler (+1000)
He has been the model of consistency at the two-mile tracks throughout his career, and since returning to the XFINITY Series full time in 2011, Sadler has never finished outside the Top 10 in seven starts at Auto Club. He also has three straight Top 5 finishes at Auto Club’s sister track, Michigan. Sadler is always running near the front, and in a field without a lot of Cup regulars, he could be one of the big beneficiaries.
Justin Allgaier (+1200)
Allgaier is rapidly gaining steam. Since crashing at Daytona, he has finishes of sixth, third and second heading into Saturday’s race at Auto Club, and he has led double-digit laps in each of the last two races. Allgaier has cracked the Top 10 in both of his starts at Auto Club since joining JR Motorsports, and as well as he has been this year, he could end up being a steal at these odds.
Austin Dillon (+2000)
His first two XFINITY stars this year haven’t gone well, but it’s still crazy to me that a multi-year veteran of the Cup Series is getting such long odds this weekend. Not to mention the fact that Dillon has cracked the Top 5 in three of his four XFINITY starts at Auto Club, winning in his most recent start in 2016. There’s plenty of upside here.
The Sleeper
Daniel Hemric (+3300)
He finished 11th in his Auto Club debut last, but you have to remember that Hemric was making just his fifth XFINITY start at the time. He improved leaps and bounds over the course of the year, eventually making the Championship 4. This year, Hemric heads to Auto Club on the heels of back-to-back sixth-place finishes, and if he’s been managing to contend for Top 5s in fields loaded with Cup regulars, you can imagine what he might do in arguably the weakest field to date. Hemric is my favorite bet if you want to take a flier on a longshot.
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