2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to action this weekend at Sonoma Raceway. The 12-turn, 2.52-mile track will host Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350, the first road course event of the 2018 season.
With elevation changes, twisting combination turns and hard braking zones, Sonoma might be the most technically demanding track on the schedule, and it should be no surprise that a select group of drivers tend to excel at road courses like Sonoma.
It should also be no surprise that the top drivers in the series tend be among those drivers that dominate at road courses, and championship frontrunners Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. are all listed as co-favorites this weekend. Check out all my top betting options for Sunday’s Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma.
2018 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Toyota/Save Mart 350
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (4/1)
Busch can make a strong claim to being the top road course driver in the series today. His four wins are the most among active drivers, and he has won twice at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He has also finished seventh or better in each of the last six road course events, leading laps in all of those races. Busch could add to his road course win total Sunday.
Kevin Harvick (4/1)
He has been the best driver so far this season, and he also happens to be the defending winner of this weekend’s race. In fact, Harvick has finished sixth or better in three of his four starts at Sonoma with Stewart-Haas Racing, leading more than 20 laps in two of those four starts. Don’t expect the most dominant driver in the series to slow down this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)
Truex delivered a dominating win at Sonoma back in 2013, and he was arguably the best driver at the road courses last year. He led the most laps here, but an engine issue denied him a potential win. Truex also led the most laps at Watkins Glen later in the year, and this time, he sealed the deal and went to victory lane. Look for him to be a major player for the win again Sunday.
Kurt Busch (8/1)
If you don’t want to back one of the three co-favorites Sunday, Busch offers you a little more room for profit and has an excellent road course resume. He actually leads all drivers with eight top-10s in the last 10 road course race, and he has been at his best at Sonoma. His 5.6 average finish over the last seven races here is the best of any driver, and his 136 laps led in that span are also the most. Busch is a former winner at Sonoma, and a return trip to victory lane isn’t out of the question.
Denny Hamlin (10/1)
The best value among the frontrunners this weekend is easily Hamlin. He has been on an absolute tear at the road courses, finishing fourth or better in each of the last four road course races. Hamlin has led double-digit laps in three of those events, winning at Watkins Glen and coming within one turn of winning at Sonoma two years ago. Don’t hesitate to back Hamlin aggressively.
Bad Bets
Joey Logano (10/1)
Logano reeled off four straight top-five finishes at the road courses from 2015 to 2016, picking up a win at Watkins Glen. However, he finished outside the top 10 in both road course events last year, and he hasn’t led many laps at road courses overall. The other drivers getting similar odds this weekend all have more impressive resumes, and I’d rather have any of them ahead of Logano. He is a little overvalued.
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