2018 Pennzoil 400 Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets: The West Coast portion of the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series begins this weekend at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval will host Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, and as is usually the case at mile-and-a-half tracks, there are plenty of big names listed among the favorites.
The importance on horsepower and aerodynamics at these high-speed ovals gives the big names from big teams a natural advantage, and they have taken advantage at Las Vegas. Since 2003, Carl Edwards is the only driver who has won here who doesn’t boast a championship to his name, and he’s a borderline Hall of Famer in his own right.
Don’t be afraid to put some money down on the frontrunners, they usually deliver for you at Vegas. Check out my top bets for Sunday’s Pennzoil 400, along with a couple of betting favorites that I would avoid.
2018 Pennzoil 400 Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets
The Favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (5/1)
Pay no attention to anyone who thinks the sky is falling on Truex after he didn’t win at Atlanta last weekend. After all, the defending champ overcame starting last and a bad pit stop to finish fifth, which was actually better than he did at Atlanta in his title-winning season from a year ago. Truex turned around and led a race-high 150 laps to win at Vegas last year, and he ended up winning seven of the 11 races at mile-and-a-half tracks. The smart money is on Truex this weekend.
Brad Keselowski (6/1)
In terms of overall production, no driver can match what Keselowski had done at Vegas in recent years. Over the last five races, his 3.4 average finish at the track is by far the best in the series. During that stretch, he has two wins, and he has led laps in all five starts. Keselowski led 89 laps in last year’s race and is coming off a runner-up effort at Atlanta last weekend. He is one of the safest bets for Sunday.
Kevin Harvick (9/2)
I’m not too worried about his poor finish at Las Vegas last year. Harvick had climbed from outside the top 15 to the top five in the opening laps before cutting a tire and smashing the wall, so he clearly had a fast car. In his three previous starts at the track with Stewart-Haas Racing, he led laps each time and won the 2015 event. Coming off a dominating win at Atlanta, Harvick looks like a strong pick.
Joey Logano (12/1)
He’s been excellent at Las Vegas with his current Team Penske team, compiling a 6.4 average finish in four starts. More importantly, Logano has three finishes of fourth or better in that span and has led 40-plus laps three times. Among my favorites for the win, he provides the most potential for profit.
Bad Bets
Kyle Larson (6/1)
I love Larson. He is one of the most talented drivers in the sport today, but as great as he was last year, he doesn’t deserve to have the same odds as guys like Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Kevin Harvick this weekend. All those drivers have won at Las Vegas. Larson has never won at a 1.5-mile track. I know he finished second here last year, but he led just seven laps over the first nine races at mile-and-a-half tracks. I think he is overvalued a bit.
Jimmie Johnson (12/1)
I get it. He’s a seven-time champ and a four-time winner at Las Vegas, but Johnson is currently mired in the worst slump of his Hall of Fame career. His 25-race winless streak is the longest of his career, and the same goes for his eight straight finishes outside the Top 10 and five straight finishes outside the top 20. You are paying for a name at this point. Don’t waste your money.
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