2018 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers: It’s been a couple of weeks, but the NASCAR XFINITY Series is finally back in action this weekend. Texas Motor Speedway will host Saturday’s My Bariatric Solutions 300, and with the Cup Series also visiting the 1.5-mile oval in the Lone Star State, we have a couple of big names pulling double duty and adding some tough competition for the XFINITY regulars.
For a complete look at all the favorites I’ll be targeting, as well as some of my favorite value bets and sleepers, check out my betting preview for the My Bariatric Solutions 300 at Texas.
2018 My Bariatric Solutions 300 Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers
The Favorites
Kevin Harvick (3/2)
There isn’t much room for profit here, but if you want to go with the safest bet Saturday, you need to back Harvick. Not only is he a five-time winner at Texas in the XFINITY Series, but he was also dominant in his first XFINITY start of the year, leading 141 of the 163 laps in a win at Atlanta. Texas shares a similar 1.5-mile layout to Atlanta, and Harvick has also won both Cup races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year in dominating fashion. The rest of the competition might be in for another beatdown.
Ryan Blaney (11/4)
Blaney led more than 30 laps and finished fourth in his only XFINITY start this season, and his history at Texas bodes well for his chances Saturday. He raced both XFINITY races at the track last year, leading more than 30 laps and finishing second in both events. Blaney also led the most laps in the spring race at the Cup level. If you want a little more upside than you get with Kevin Harvick while still sticking with a clear frontrunner, Blaney is your man.
Christopher Bell (6/1)
The rookie has lived up to the hype, going head-to-head with the Cup regulars immediately. He has led laps in four of the five races this year, including both races at 1.5-mile tracks so far. Bell has also finished in the top three in both of the races at mile-and-a-half tracks this year, and he already owns an XFINITY win at a 1.5-mile oval. Bell should be battling for the win Saturday, and he offers you a little more room for profit than they two Cup regulars who are listed among the favorites.
Value Bets
Justin Allgaier (18/1)
If you are dropping down from the favorites to try to score a bigger payout, Allgaier is my favorite value bet. He’s shown one of the highest ceilings among the series regulars, and he has finished sixth or better in the four races since Daytona. More importantly, Allgaier has led laps in each of the last three races leading up to Texas, finishing third or better in all three of them. He’s running as well as any driver in the series right now, and he could be the absolute steal of the weekend.
Elliott Sadler (20/1)
I was surprised to see Sadler listed behind seven other drivers this weekend. He’s been the most consistent XFINITY regular this year, and he is the only driver who has cracked the top 10 in all five races thus far. Sadler also has a series-best four top-five finishes in 2018, and he has finished in the top 10 in his last five starts at Texas. There is a decent margin for profit here for a driver who is pretty much a lock to be fighting near the front Saturday.
Daniel Hemric (25/1)
Although he struggled in both of his starts at Texas as a rookie last year, Hemric has emerged as one of the strongest series regulars in his sophomore season. He has finished 11th or better in every race since the opener at Daytona, and he has actually finished sixth or better in each of the last three races. Among the drivers who challenge for top-five finishes on a regular basis, Hemric gives you the most room for profit.
The Sleeper
Matt Tifft (100/1)
I understand why Tifft is a longshot this weekend, but there is no reason he should have the longest odds to win of any driver on the board. Tifft has finished 12th or better in every race since Daytona, notching back-to-back top-10s. He has also finished in the top 10 in three of his four XFINITY starts at Texas. At the very least, he has shown he can be within striking distance of the front, especially at this track. Meanwhile, you have Chase Briscoe getting 50/1 odds with just one XFINITY starts under his belt for his career. If you are rolling the dice on a sleeper, Tifft is by far your smartest bet.
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