2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Top Championship Sleeper Bets: The 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season officially begins this weekend, but before the green flag waves at Daytona, you can still place some future bets on the eventual champion. I already highlighted some of my favorite bets among the serious contenders, but if you want to turn a smaller bet into a big payout, you need to take a chance on a dark horse or two.
With the season set to begin, here is a closer look at my favorite longshot bets to win the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series championship.
2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Top Championship Sleeper Bets
Top Sleeper Bets
Jimmie Johnson (15/1)
The 2017 season was a rough for Johnson. His four top-five finishes, 11 top-10s and 16.8 average finish were all the worst marks of his career, but I still think he is a little undervalued. He currently has the eighth-best odds to win the title, but I’m not sure there are seven other guys I’d rather have to put my money on than the seven-time champ. After all, he had arguably the second-worst year of his career in 2016, and he still managed to win the championship that season. Johnson and Chad Knaus are masters at exploiting the rules, and they showed two years ago that all it takes is a few well-timed wins to steal away the title. As bad as he was last year, Johnson still managed to win three times. Even if the Chevrolet’s switch to Camaro doesn’t bring about the improvements many expect, Johnson is still very dangerous.
Erik Jones (20/1)
It would take a sizeable leap for Jones to go from missing the playoffs as a rookie to winning the title as a sophomore, but that’s the type of talent he has. He more than lived up to the hype in his first year, finishing with 14 Top 10s and leading 310 laps. More importantly, he clearly got comfortable as the year progressed, and seven of his nine finishes of sixth or better came from August on. Jones also moved to Joe Gibbs Racing over the offseason, and top to bottom, JGR is probably the best organization in NASCAR right now. I’ll be shocked if Jones doesn’t win a race this year, and if his second half surge was any indication, he has potential to be a top-five driver in this series. If I’m taking a flier on a championship dark horse, I’ll gladly put my money on a young talent in elite equipment.
Ryan Blaney (30/1)
His 17.2 average finish last year doesn’t scream championship contender, but Blaney displayed a high ceiling despite his boom-or-bust tendencies. He won his first race and posted 14 top-10s. He also ranked ninth in driver rating, 11th in average running position and 13th in green flag speed. In other words, Blaney was a borderline top-10 driver last year in just his second full-time season, and over the offseason, he moved from Wood Brothers Racing to Team Penske. Another year of experience and a move to one of the premier teams in the sport should only speed up Blaney’s development, and he is another young driver dripping with upside that I’m happy to take a chance on at his current odds.
Kurt Busch (80/1)
I’m starting to dip into some serious longshots, but Busch is a former series champion that could be due for a big rebound in 2018. Prior to last season, his Stewart-Haas Racing made a surprise switch to Ford. The move should have long-term benefits for the organization, but it no doubt put a short-term strain on the SHR teams, and it explains Busch’s decline in production. In both 2015 and 2016, Busch registered more than 20 top-10 finishes, posting average finishes of 11.1 and 12.0, respectively. With another year for Busch and his team to get acclimated to Ford, there is a decent chance he will once again be a driver who contends for top-10s on a weekly basis. If that happens, he will look like a potential steal at these odds.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (200/1)
It will take a small miracle for Stenhouse to advance in the playoffs, let alone reach the final race and win the championship, but if I’m throwing a few bucks at a complete shot-in-the-dark option, Stenhouse at least has an inside track to the playoffs because of his plate track prowess. Stenhouse won two plate races last year, and one win will put him in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Talladega is in the playoffs, so if he can sneak out of the first round, he could win his way to the later stages. Again, the odds of Stenhouse winning it all are almost nonexistent, but among the drivers with similar odds, he is the only one with a realistic chance to even make the playoffs and have a chance.
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