2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race Picks and Predictions – Top Bets and Favorites to Avoid: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series is taking an off week from points racing, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot on the line this weekend. There will be a $1 million, winner-take-all purse up for grabs in Saturday night’s All-Star Race.
The exhibition event will last 80 laps and be divided over four stages, but unlike past seasons when there have been eliminations, field inversions and mandatory pit stops, this year’s race will feature a new aero package. NASCAR has decided to use a restrictor-plate package, similar to the one used by the XFINITY Series at Indianapolis last year, with the hoping to make passing easier.
From a betting standpoint, the new aero rules could be a serious X-factor in Saturday’s race, and until cars get on the track and start practicing, nobody is quite sure what to expect. That being said, we have plenty of data of how drivers perform in races at Charlotte and at tracks with the same 1.5-mile layout, and there is a good chance that the drivers who normally run well will continue to excel with the new package.
With that in mind, here is a closer look at the betting favorites who I recommend backing in Saturday night’s All-Star Race.
2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series All-Star Race Picks and Predictions: Top Bets and Favorites to Avoid
Favorites to Bet
Kyle Busch (5/1)
Busch is the defending winner of the All-Star Race, and he has been one of the best in the business in 2018. He already has three wins under his belt, and he has finished in the top 10 in all four races at 1.5-mile tracks, picking up a win at Texas. It’s been Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick and then everybody else this year, and I don’t expect the new rules to suddenly derail Busch’s momentum.
Kevin Harvick (6/1)
His nine top-10s in the last 10 races at Charlotte are the most of any driver, and Harvick has finished third or better in five of his eight starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing. He’s also been pretty good at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, picking up three wins and a second-place finish in the four races. Yes, there is a new rules package being used this weekend, but Harvick has been fast everywhere in 2018. I don’t expect that to change Saturday night.
Martin Truex Jr. (8/1)
Although Kevin Harvick has taken his title as the king of the 1.5-mile tracks, Truex has still be one of the best in the series at the high-speed ovals. He has three top-five finishes in four races this year, including his near-win at Kansas last weekend. Truex also boasts impressive numbers at Charlotte. He has five top-five finishes in the last six races at the track, winning twice and leading more than 90 laps four times. I love Truex as an alternative bet to Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.
Joey Logano (12/1)
He has been the model of consistency this year, notching 10 top-10 finishes through the first 12 races. More importantly, the former Charlotte winner has recaptured his mojo at the 1.5-mile tracks after a bit of a down year in 2017. Logano has finished seventh or better in all four races at 1.5-mile ovals this year, compiling a 5.5 average finish in those starts. He is my favorite value bet among the top betting options this weekend.
Bad Bets
Kyle Larson (8/1)
Larson is coming off one of his best runs ever at a 1.5-mile oval last weekend at Kansas, but that doesn’t change the fact that he has never won a Cup race at a mile-and-a-half track. Not to mention the fact that he hasn’t bene overly great at Charlotte, managing just one top-five finish at an 18.7 average finish in nine starts. Yes, Larson could have a fast car Saturday night, but I have a really hard time backing him at 8/1 when I could have Charlotte stud Martin Truex Jr. for the same odds or have more room for profit with any of the three Team Penske drivers. I’ll pass.
Kurt Busch (12/1)
Don’t get me wrong. Busch has been solid at Charlotte, notching six finishes of 11th or better in his last seven starts. He has also been solid at the 1.5-mile tracks in 2018, posting three top-10s in the first four races. However, he only has one top-five finish during his current hot streak at CMS, and he is still looking for a top-five finish at a 1.5-mile oval this year. Busch should have a top-10 car Saturday night, but I doubt he has the high-end speed needed to win. He is a little overvalued at 12/1.
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