2018 Gander Outdoors 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Gander Outdoors 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series playoffs are in full swing, and a return trip to Dover International Speedway is on tap this weekend for the Gander Outdoors 400. Nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” the one-mile, concrete oval has an overall narrow layout, and the tight confines have been known to produce some big wrecks on the track and on pit road.
While the track is capable of jumping out and biting a driver, big names have historically performed very well at Dover, and that includes the Big 3 of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. This trio has dominated the Cup Series most of the year, and they will once again be on the list of favorites heading into Sunday’s race.
Check out all my top bets for the Gander Outdoors 400 at Dover International Speedway.
2018 Gander Outdoors 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Gander Outdoors 400
Favorites to Bet
Kevin Harvick (5/2)
Harvick will try for the season sweep at Dover after a dominant performance in the spring that saw him lead 201 of the 400 laps. It was his second win at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, and in nine starts at Dover with SHR, he has led 1,011 laps. Harvick has led more than 90 laps in five of those starts, and he has led more than 200 laps three times. He is the best bet to put a beatdown on the rest of the field.
Kyle Busch (3/1)
With three career wins under his belt at Dover, Busch clearly knows how to get around “The Monster Mile.” One of those wins came last fall, and for whatever reason, the fall race at the track has been his best. Prior to last year’s win, Busch had finished second in the fall race at Dover in both 2016 and 2015, and he has cracked the top 10 in the last eight fall races here. As he has been most of the season, Busch is one of the safest places to put your money this weekend.
Martin Truex Jr. (4/1)
His first career Cup win came at Dover, and Truex has been locked in at the track since joining Furniture Row Racing. In nine starts here with the team, he has a 5.7 average finish and hasn’t finished worse than 11th. More importantly, Truex has reeled off four straight top-five finishes at Dover, winning the fall race in 2016 and leading more than 50 laps in three of those four events. In fact, Truex has led more than 40 laps in five of his last seven starts here, leading more than 100 laps three times. Getting the longest odds to win of the Big 3, he’s an excellent bet this weekend/
Kyle Larson (7/1)
Although he is still looking for a win at Dover, Larson has been one of the strongest performers at the track since coming to the Cup Series. He has an 8.1 average finish and seven top-10s in nine career starts, and he has finished third or better three times. Larson has also led at least 85 laps in three of his last five starts here, leading 241 and 137 laps, respectively, in the two races at Dover a year ago. As much time as he has been spending out front, it is only a matter of time before he breaks through with a win. After the Big 3, Larson looks like your safest bet.
Bad Bets
Joey Logano (14/1)
Logano has had some solid finishes at Dover, but it just hasn’t been his best track over the years. His last top-five finish here came back in the fall of 2014, and he has actually been in a bit of a slump here recently. He has qualified outside the top 15 and finished outside the top 10 in four of his last five starts at the track, and he just doesn’t have the type of speed a driver needs to contend for a strong finish, let alone a win. If I’m straying from the heavy favorites, there are drivers with more upside than Logano that are getting friendlier odds.
Nascar Gander Outdoors 400 Odds – Race Winner
Kevin Harvick +300
Kyle Busch +400
Martin Truex Jr +450
Kyle Larson +700
Brad Keselowski +1000
Clint Bowyer +1200
Ryan Blaney +1500
Joey Logano +1500
Chase Elliott +1500
Denny Hamlin +2000
Erik Jones +2500
Kurt Busch +2500
Aric Almirola +4000
Jimmie Johnson +2500
Daniel Suarez +5000
Alex Bowman +5000
Ryan Newman +10000
Jamie McMurray +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Field +3000
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