2018 Consumers Energy 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Consumers Energy 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series returns to Michigan International Speedway this weekend for the second race of the summer at the D-shaped oval. Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400 will also be the third race of the year of the year at a two-mile oval, and these big, high-horsepower tracks tend to be kind to the bigger teams that have the most money invested under the hood.
Needless to say, the usual suspects are again listed among the betting favorites this weekend, and with the “Big 3” of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. dominating at a record pace, you need to have plenty of exposure to the frontrunners to maximize your chances of cashing in this weekend.
Check out a closer look at all my tops bets and a few big names to avoid for Sunday’s Consumers Energy 400.
2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Consumers Energy 400
Favorites to Bet
Kevin Harvick (11/4)
Harvick looked like he had the June race at Michigan in the bag, but he had to settle for second when rain cut the race 67 laps short. He still led a race-high 49 laps, and over the last 10 races here, he has a series-best seven top-five finishes and has finished second on five different occasions. Harvick has shown a ton of speed at high-horsepower tracks like MIS, Auto Club and Pocono all season, and he is the safest bet on the board this weekend.
Kyle Busch (13/4)
If you look at Busch’s overall record at Michigan, it actually isn’t that impressive. However, he finished fourth in the June race earlier this season, and no driver has been as consistently great in recent weeks than Busch. He has a series-best nine top-five finishes in the 10 races leading up to Michigan, and he has led 30-plus laps in each of the last three races. Busch is basically a lock to have a shot at the win, which is exactly what you want when betting on one of the heavy favorites.
Kyle Larson (7/1)
He crashed out on a late restart during the June race at Michigan, but don’t forget the resume Larson has amassed at this track. The wreck snapped a streak of three straight victories at MIS, and he has finished third or better in six of the last seven races at two-mile tracks, winning four times in that span. If you want a little more room for profit while still backing a serious threat, Larson is your guy this weekend.
Chase Elliott (10/1)
Elliott is riding a wave of momentum after his win at Watkins Glen, and after struggling a bit early in the year, he is suddenly pushing for wins on a weekly basis. He will take his hot hand to one of his best tracks this weekend, and in five Cup starts at Michigan, Elliott has never finished outside the top 10 and has been the runner-up three times. Among the betting favorites, Elliott is your best value play.
Bad Bets
Martin Truex Jr. (13/4)
He has been one of the most dominant drivers all season, but while Truex has been mentioned alongside Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch as one of the favorites this weekend, he comes with the most red flags. Yes, he had two strong runs at Michigan last year, but he didn’t have the speed to win back in June, settling for an 18th-place finish while Harvick and Busch both finished in the top five. For essentially the same odds, I will take my chances with either of the two drivers who were in the mix for the win before I bet on Truex.
Brad Keselowski (9/1)
His career numbers at Michigan are solid, and Keselowski finished sixth in the June race here earlier this year. However, he has been mired in a slump in recent weeks, finishing outside the top 15 in four of the last five races and finishing outside the top 30 three times over that stretch. There are a lot of younger drivers running really well right now, and I’d rather take a shot on them and their much more favorable odds than roll the dice on a slumping Keselowski at 9/1.
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