2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions – Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Daytona International Speedway this weekend for the third restrictor-plate race of the 2018 season. Thanks to the back racing produced by the restrictor plates, Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 promises to be one of the most wide-open events of the year.
Yes, you will want to put some money down on some longshots this weekend, but while plenty of surprise drivers end up with great finishes, you will usually find a household name in victory lane, so you won’t want to ignore the favorites when trying to hit on the winner. With that in mind, here is a closer look at my top bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona.
2018 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites and Bad Bets for the Coke Zero Sugar 400
Favorites to Bet
Brad Keselowski (7/1)
Nobody has been able to run up front and win at the plate tracks like Keselowski. His six restrictor-plate wins are the most among active drivers, and three of those have come in the last 10 races. Keselowski has also led the most laps of any driver in those same 10 races, and he has led 20-plus laps six times.
Joey Logano (7/1)
Logano won at Talladega back in April, giving him four career restrictor-plate wins. He’s also been the most consistent performer at the plate tracks in recent years, notching a series-best seven top-10s in the last 10 races. Logano has also cracked the top five in the last three restrictor-plate events, and at an unpredictable track, he is your safest bet to be in the mix for the win Saturday night.
Denny Hamlin (10/1)
He’s got a couple of restrictor-plate wins under his belt, and Hamlin always seems to be battling at the front of the field. In fact, he has led laps in nine of the last 10 plate races, and he has led 10 or more laps in four of his last five starts. Hamlin led 22 laps and finished third at Daytona in February, and you can pretty much bank on him having a car capable of winning.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (14/1)
Among the favorites for this weekend’s race, Stenhouse looks like the best value on the board. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race at Daytona, but his two wins and five top-five finishes in the last eight restrictor-plate races are both tied for the most in the series. His resume is on par with any driver out there, and he will pay double what the favorites will.
Bad Bets
Chase Elliott (12/1)
Elliott has shown plenty of speed at the restrictor-plate tracks, and he actually won a qualifying race at Daytona during Speedweeks. That being said, he has struggled to make it to the finish in many of his plate races, finishing 30th or worse in four of his 10 starts and finishing off the lead lap six times. He is overvalued for a driver who has never won a plate race and is still looking for consistency.
Martin Truex Jr. (20/1)
You might see 20/1 odds for one of the best drivers in the series and think you are getting a steal, but don’t fall for the trap. As great as the defending series champ runs at almost every track on the schedule, the restrictor-plate tracks have been his Achilles’ heel. Truex has finished outside the top 10 in the last nine plate races, leading just nine total laps and finishing outside the top 25 five times in that span.
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