2018 All-Star Open Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions – Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers: The main event of this weekend’s action at Charlotte Motor Speedway will be Saturday night’s All-Star Race, but before some of the top drivers in the series take to the track to race for $1 million, there are four more spots up for grabs in the All-Star Open qualifying race.
The qualifying race will be divided into three stages, and the winner of each stage will transfer into the All-Star Race. The race tends to be one of the more intense events because the drivers having nothing to lose and the potential to win a shot at $1 million.
If you plan on betting on the Open, you need to keep in mind that many betting sites only declare the winner of the third and final stage as the “winner” of the race that you are betting on. If a driver wins either of the first two stages, they probably aren’t going to race the remainder of the event since they’ve already secured themselves a spot in the All-Star Race. It’s definitely something to keep in mind when placing your bets.
2018 All-Star Open Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Value Bets and Sleepers
The Favorites
Chase Elliott
It’s been a frustrating year for Elliott, but that doesn’t change the fact that he is one of the best drivers in the Open field. He’s also shown some promise at Charlotte in the past. He was the runner-up in the fall race here last year, and he led more than 100 laps in the fall race in 2016. Elliott is popular enough that he might make the All-Star Race via the fan vote, but I’m not sure he will need it. Look for him to race his way into the main event.
Erik Jones
Of all the drivers in the Open field, Jones has been the best at the 1.5-mile ovals this year. In his first season with Joe Gibbs Racing, he has logged three top-10s and posted a 7.5 average finish through four races at mile-and-a-half tracks. He also picked up a top-10 in his Charlotte debut last spring. It will be a big surprise if Jones doesn’t win one of the stages and secure a spot in the All-Star Race.
Aric Almirola
His first year with Stewart-Haas Racing has been a huge success thus far, and Almirola heads into All-Star weekend with a 12.4 average finish and 10 top-15s through the first 12 races. He’s also been fast at the 1.5-mile ovals, finishing 13th or better in three of the four races. Almirola has been a borderline top-10 performer all year. In the thinned out Open field, he will jump to the head of the pack.
Value Bets
Daniel Suarez
It’s been a case of the wrong place at the wrong time at the 1.5-mile tracks for Suarez this season, but he is still a good driver who has excellent equipment at his disposal. He has finished 11th or better in four of the five races heading into All-Star weekend, and he finished 11th and sixth in two starts at Charlotte as a rookie last year. He could easily break out of his slump at the mile-and-a-half tracks in a big way during the Open.
Paul Menard
He’s made a career out of running in the middle of the pack, but Menard is benefitting from his offseason move to Wood Brothers Racing because of the speed the Ford teams have shown to start the 2018 season. He has top-10 finishes in two of the four races at 1.5-mile tracks this year, including a sixth-place run at Kansas last weekend. Menard has never shown more upside on a consistent basis than he has this year. He could grab one of the transfer spots to the main event.
William Byron
The rookie has been making gains all year, and he was in position for his second straight top-10 at a 1.5-mile track before being caught up in a wreck in the final laps at Kansas. Byron still has five top-15s in the last 10 races, and a smaller field with many of the big names out of the picture should only bolster his chances. The Open should be Byron’s first chance to make some serious noise.
The Sleeper
Alex Bowman
His first full season in the No. 88 machine has had some highs and lows and a lot of top-20 finishes, especially at the 1.5-mile tracks. However, Bowman had a great car the last time he raced at Charlotte, and he was running in the top three when he had a tire issue. He could sneak up on the favorites and steal the final transfer spot.
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