2017 Quaker State 400 Picks and Predictions – Quaker State 400 Sleeper Bets: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series visits Kentucky Speedway this weekend, and the 1.5-mile oval hasn’t exactly produced a lot of upsets since joining the schedule in 2011. Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have combined to win five of the six races, and Matt Kenseth is the other driver to visit victory lane.
With three former champions combining to win all the races here, there is a good chance that one of the favorites will come out on top. That being said, nothing is a given in NASCAR, and we have already seen three first-time winners in 2017. Surprises have been the norm this year, so in case the trend continues at Kentucky, I’ve highlighted a few of my favorite longshot bets for Saturday’s Quaker State 400 at Kentucky.
2017 Quaker State 400 Picks and Predictions: Quaker State 400 Sleeper Bets
Ryan Blaney (25/1)
The sophomore made it pretty clear that he is going to be a force in this sport when he outdueled Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick at Pocono a couple of weeks ago to win his first career Cup race. He has also been impressive at the 1.5-mile ovals this year. He has led the third-most laps in the five races at these tracks, leading 148 laps at Texas and 83 laps at Kansas. Blaney has shown he can contend for wins at tracks like Kentucky, and he has led way more laps at these tracks than a lot of drivers being favored ahead of him Saturday night. There is some good value here.
Jamie McMurray (30/1)
He has put up solid numbers at Kentucky, and he has actually finished as high as second at the track. More importantly, McMurray has shown a ton of speed at the 1.5-mile tracks this season. He has logged four top-10s in five races at mile-and-a-half ovals, compiling a 9.0 average finish and scoring the fourth-most driver points. There is no reason that speed shouldn’t carry over to Kentucky, making McMurray a potential steal at these odds.
Kurt Busch (40/1)
It has been a quiet year for Busch since winning the Daytona 500, and heading into Sunday’s race, he has just two top-five finishes in 17 races. However, he recently said that Stewart-Haas Racing found a little extra speed during testing, and he has six finishes of 12th or better in the last nine races, including five finishes of eighth or better. Busch has also enjoyed some success at Kentucky. His 10.0 average finish at the track ranks fourth in the series, and he is coming off a career-best fourth-place finish here last season. All signs point to Busch running in the top 10 this weekend, and at 40/1, I’ll take a chance on a guy who is almost guaranteed to be within striking distance of the front.
Ryan Newman (100/1)
Newman has been hit and miss at Kentucky, but he has intriguing upside for a driver getting such long odds. His three top-five finishes at the track are tied for the second most, and Newman has finished third in two of his last three starts here. Granted, Newman doesn’t win a ton of races these days, but he showed with his victory at Phoenix early in the year that he can still get the job done. The bottom line is that you won’t find another driver getting these odds that has shown the ability to run up front at Kentucky.
Trevor Bayne (300/1)
I was shocked when I saw Bayne listed as a 300/1 longshot this weekend. I know his only career Cup win came in the Daytona 500 in just his second start, but he has been rock solid at Kentucky and at 1.5-mile tracks in general this year. He has finished 11th and 13th in two starts at Kentucky, and he has finished 16th or better in all five starts at mile-and-a-half tracks in 2017. At worst, he should be close enough to the front to be able to try to steal a win with pit strategy. There is also a chance he could field a pretty strong car. Since a repave before 2016, Kentucky has been compared to Texas Motor Speedway. When the Cup Series visited Texas a few months back, Bayne said he had the best car he has ever had at the Cup level. If that speed translates, he could have bettors smiling this weekend.
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