2017 NASCAR Cup Series Overton’s 301 Odds & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders: The Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend, and the flat, 1.0-mile track will play host to Sunday’s Overton’s 301.
Known as “The Magic Mile,” New Hampshire has often been referred to as Martinsville on steroids, but while the tracks have similar flat corners, the longer straightaways and higher speeds make NHMS a much different challenge. Brakes will be pushed to the limit, and completing passes is very difficult.
As a result, track position becomes crucial, and crew chiefs will employ a variety of tire and fuel strategies to try to get their drivers out front and ultimately into victory lane. With that in mind, it’s time to take a closer look at my top picks for Sunday’s Overton’s 301 at New Hampshire.
2017 NASCAR Cup Series Overton’s 301 Odds & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders
The Favorites
Few drivers have been as locked in at New Hampshire in recent years as Kyle Busch. Over the last eight races at the track, he has seven top-10s, including five finishes of third or better. Busch has been particularly dominant in the July race. He has led more than 50 laps in the event in each of the last five seasons, winning the 2015 race and leading a race-high 133 laps last year. Since 2012, no driver has led more laps at NHMS.
He picked up a win at New Hampshire last September, and Kevin Harvick has been one of the best in the business at the track since joining Stewart-Haas Racing. He has four top-five finishes in the last five races, and his 387 laps led in that stretch are the most of any driver. For his career, Harvick ranks second in both laps led and fastest laps run at NHMS.
Over the last 10 races at New Hampshire, Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with a 6.7 average finish. He has finished in the top 15 in every race during that span, finishing seventh or better seven times. Keselowski is also a former winner here, and he has led 70-plus laps in three of his last six starts here.
The Contenders
It has been an up-and-down season for Matt Kenseth, but a trip to New Hampshire could be just what the doctor ordered. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing, he has seven top-10s in eight starts at the track and has led over 300 laps in that span. More importantly, he has three wins here with JGR, including two in his last three starts.
New Hampshire hasn’t always been kind to him, and Martin Truex Jr. hasn’t had a top-five finish here since 2008. However, he has been by far the best driver in the series this year, and he led more than 100 laps in both races at the track a year ago, leading the most laps in the September race. Truex has to be on the short list of top contenders at any track.
He has been stuck in a bit of a summer slump, but Joey Logano has an excellent record at New Hampshire. He has a 4.5 average finish in the last five races here, winning once and cracking the top five on four occasions. Logano is a two-time winner at NHMS for his career, and he has become one of the best flat track drivers in the series since joining Team Penske.
It has been a while since he had a dominant performance at New Hampshire, but Denny Hamlin remains one of the better drivers at the track. He has eight top-15s in his last 10 starts here, including four straight, and he has led the second-most laps of any driver in that span. For his career, Hamlin is a two-time winner at NHMS, and he owns the top driver rating at the track.
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2017 Overtons 301 Odds
Kyle Busch +500
Kevin Harvick +500
Martin Truex Jr +600
Denny Hamlin +600
Brad Keselowski +800
Jimmie Johnson +800
Matt Kenseth +1000
Kyle Larson +1000
Chase Elliott +1200
Joey Logano +1500
Clint Bowyer +2000
Jamie McMurray +2500
Ryan Blaney +3000
Erik Jones +5000
Kurt Busch +5000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +6000
Ryan Newman +8000
Kasey Kahne +8000
Field +2000
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