2017 Camping World 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions – 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series: The West Coast swing of the 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series continues this weekend with the Camping World 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. The 1.0-mile oval will host the first flat track event of the season, and it will be interesting to see how NASCAR’s new three-segment race format impacts the outcome.
After three races, the new format hasn’t changed much. However, the first three tracks have been bigger, high-speed tracks where drivers pit for tires at every opportunity. That could change this weekend at Phoenix. The flat corners make passing difficult, and track position and pit strategy have always played a huge role.
Crew chiefs will likely approach the cautions between the segments with a variety of strategies, and it could create some surprises. Needless to say, it could be an interesting afternoon in the desert, and here is a closer look at the drivers with the best chance of standing tall in victory lane when the checkered flag finally waves.
2017 Camping World 500 Odds, Picks & Predictions – 2017 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series
The Favorites
To say that Kevin Harvick has dominated Phoenix doesn’t do his numbers justice. He is an eight-time winner here, and six of those wins have come in his last 10 starts. In fact, Harvick has won four of his six starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, compiling a 1.7 average finish and leading more laps than the rest of the drivers combined. Harvick winning at Phoenix has been as close to a sure thing as you will find in NASCAR.
After winning at Atlanta a couple of weeks ago, it looked like Brad Keselowski was heading to another win at Las Vegas last weekend before a mechanical issue struck with two laps to go. Still, Keselowski has had one of the cars to beat in all three races this season, so he is clearly firing on all cylinders as he visits a Phoenix track that has been kind to him. His 9.1 average finish in the last 10 races here ranks second in the series, and he has six finishes of sixth or better in that span.
He survived a series of wild restarts to win at Phoenix last fall, and Joey Logano will try to add to an ever-improving resume at the track this weekend. He has six top-10s in his last seven starts at the track, and over the last three years, he has led the second-most laps of any driver.
The Contenders
It seems safe to say that Kurt Busch has been benefiting from being teammates with Kevin Harvick because he has been one of the best at Phoenix since joining Stewarrt-Haas Racing. Busch has reeled off five straight finishes of seventh or better at PIR, and among active drivers, he ranks in the top five in both laps led and fastest laps run at the track.
He has taken his performance to another level in 2017, and it is only a matter of time before Chase Elliott wins a race. In fact, it could come as soon as this weekend at Phoenix where he cracked the top 10 in both starts last year as a rookie. Elliott has had a car capable of winning each of the first three races of the season, and I don’t expect that to change Sunday.
The raw talent has always been there, and Kyle Larson finally seems to have found some consistency to go with his upside. He has two top-five finishes in the first three races of the year, and he was leading in the closing laps at both Daytona and Atlanta. Larson has been solid at Phoenix throughout his career, and he finished a career-best third here last fall. Expect him to be in contention for the win again Sunday.
Despite all the drama surrounding his pit road fight with Joey Logano, Kyle Busch is the type of driver who could take the incident and turn it into motivation for a win. Of course, it helps that he has been excellent at Phoenix. He is a former winner here, and Busch has finished fourth or better in each of his last three starts at the track.
He is one of the top flat track drivers in NASCAR today, so it should be no surprise that Denny Hamlin has run well at Phoenix. He has a win and 10 top-five finishes here, and he has cracked the top 10 four of his last five starts, finishing third at PIR last March. It has been a slow start to 2017 for Hamlin, but a trip to a flat track could be just what the doctor ordered.
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Odds to Win 2017 Camping World 500
60301 Austin Dillon – – +4000
60302 Brad Keselowski – – +800
60303 Chase Elliott – – +1200
60304 Clint Bowyer – – +3000
60305 Dale Earnhardt Jr – – +2000
60306 Daniel Suarez – – +4000
60307 Denny Hamlin – – +1000
60308 Erik Jones – – +3000
60309 Jamie McMurray – – +4000
60310 Jimmie Johnson – – +1200
60311 Joey Logano – – +800
60312 Kasey Kahne – – +4000
60313 Kevin Harvick – – +300
60314 Kurt Busch – – +2000
60315 Kyle Busch – – +800
60316 Kyle Larson – – +1200
60317 Martin Truex Jr – – +1200
60318 Matt Kenseth – – +2000
60319 Ryan Blaney – – +4000
60320 Ryan Newman – – +4000
60321 FIELD (Any Other) – – +2000
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