2016 Good Sam 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Favorites and Contenders: The 2016 Sprint Cup Series continues its West Coast swing this weekend with Sunday’s Good Sam 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. The race will be the first flat track event of 2016, and if history is any indication, drivers will use every inch of the racing surface, and even the apron, to try to complete passes in Phoenix’s challenging corners.
Last March, Kevin Harvick dominated the race, leading 224 of the 312 laps on his way to the win. He was on his way to a repeat performance at the track in the fall, and while he led 143 of the 219 laps, Dale Earnhardt Jr. used pit strategy and the help of Mother Nature to steal a win in a rain-shortened event.
Let’s take a closer look at the frontrunners for Sunday’s race.
2016 Good Sam 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions: Favorites and Contenders
The Favorite
There is only one driver that deserves to be labeled a favorite this weekend, and that driver is Kevin Harvick. The seven-time Phoenix winner has won four of the last five races at the track, and in the last eight races, he has seven finishes of either first or second to go along with a series-leading 2.8 average finish. He has led 925 laps in the last five races at Phoenix alone, which are 769 more than any other driver.
The Contenders
His 7.7 career average finish at Phoenix is the best in the series, and Jimmie Johnson has four wins at the track to go along with the best driver rating. He has four finishes of sixth or better in his last six starts at PIR, including a top-five finish in his most-recent start at the track last fall. Johnson has looked strong with the rules package being used in 2016, so he should be a force at a track that has always been one of his best.
The only driver that has finished in the top five in all three races of 2016 is Kyle Busch, and he should be back in the mix for a win this weekend. After all, he is a former winner at Phoenix, and he finished fourth the last time the series visited the flat, 1.0-mile track. Busch picked up multiple wins at flat tracks in 2015, and could get off to a fast start this season.
While he is still looking for a win at Phoenix, Brad Keselowski always seems to be in the mix at the track. In the last eight races here, his 6.0 average finish ranks second in the series, and he has finished sixth or better six times during the stretch. Keselowski has developed into one of the best flat track drivers in the series, and it is only a matter of time before he adds PIR to his list of tracks he has won at.
He has been solid at Phoenix throughout his career, and Carl Edwards has shown on multiple occasions that he can seal the deal in the desert. The two-time Phoenix winner owns the fourth-best average finish and third-best driver rating at the track.
There are two drivers that have finished in the top 10 in each of the last five races at Phoenix, and one of them is Joey Logano. During the same stretch, his 6.0 average finish and 156 laps led rank second in the series. He finished a career-best third at Phoenix last fall, and he continues to inch closer to a trip to victory lane at the track.
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Odds to Win 2016 Good Sam 500
Kevin Harvick +280
Jimmie Johnson +900
Kyle Busch +600
Joey Logano +700
Brad Keselowski +1200
Denny Hamlin +1000
Matt Kenseth +1000
Carl Edwards +1000
Martin Truex Jr +1500
Kurt Busch +600
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
Austin Dillon +3000
Kyle Larson +4000
Kasey Kahne +4000
Chase Elliott +2500
Jamie McMurray +4000
Clint Bowyer +10000
Brian Vickers
Ryan Newman +6000
Field +2500
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