2015 GEICO 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions: Dale Earnhardt Jr the 8/1 Favorite to Win: The Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, and NASCAR’s biggest track is also one of the most exciting. After all, the restrictor plates used at Talladega force the cars to run in a giant pack, and one wrong move from any driver can result in a big problem for several others. Aside from the big wrecks, the pack racing at Talladega keeps the finish in doubt until the checkered flag waves. It takes a good car, a savvy driver and a little bit of luck to win at Talladega, and here is a closer look at the drivers that should be considered the frontrunners to emerge with a win in Sunday’s GEICO 500.
2015 GEICO 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions – Breaking Down the Favorites and Sleepers at Talladega
The Favorites
He won at Talladega last fall, and Brad Keselowski has logged three career wins at Talladega in just 12 starts at the track. Perhaps more impressively, his three wins have come from two different teams so he clearly has a feel for restrictor plate racing. Overall, he has seven top-10 finishes at Talladega, including four in his last seven starts.
No driver has been better at Talladega in recent years than Clint Bowyer. Since 2010, he has logged a series-leading eight top-10s at the track in 10 starts. During the same stretch, he has five finishes of third or better, including a pair of wins. Meanwhile, he is the only driver to have finished in the top 10 in each of the last three races at the track.
Since the start of the 2012 season, no driver has led more laps at Talladega than Matt Kenseth. More importantly, he has backed up all his laps led with some strong finishes. Kenseth has four top-10s in six starts during the stretch, winning in 2012 and finishing second at Talladega last fall.
The only driver to be running at the finish of the last 10 restrictor plate races is Dale Earnhardt Jr. He is also one of the most accomplished plate drivers in series history, and he is a five-time winner at Talladega. Junior has proven throughout the career that he knows how to seal the deal at the plate tracks, and he is a threat whenever the series visits Talladega.
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The Contenders
His overall record at restrictor plate tracks is just average, but Denny Hamlin has been on a tear since the start of last season. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race, but he has a series-leading four top-10 finishes in the last five restrictor plate events, including three top-five finishes.
He will make his final start with Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend, but David Ragan could go out with a bang. After all, his four top-10s in the last six races at Talladega are tied for the most in the series, and during the stretch, he has three finishes of sixth or better, including a win. To top it off, both of Ragan’s Cup Series wins have come at restrictor plate tracks.
He has quietly been one of the most consistent drivers at Talladega recently, and in his last eight starts at the track, Greg Biffle has logged six top-15 finishes. Over the same stretch, Biffle has finished in the top 10 four times, and he was the runner-up at Talladega in the spring race last season.
Although he is usually boom or bust at Talladega, Jamie McMurray ceiling at the track is as high as any driver. After all, he is a two-time winner at Talladega, and he won the spring race at the track just two years ago. Meanwhile, McMurray has four total restrictor plate wins for his career.
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Odds to win the 2015 GEICO 500
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1
Brad Keselowski 12/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Jimmie Johnson 12/1
Joey Logano 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Matt Kenseth 12/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Jeff Gordon 15/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
David Ragan 20/1
Jamie McMurray 20/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Tony Stewart 20/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Kyle Larson 25/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Paul Menard 40/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 40/1
Aric Almirola 60/1
Austin Dillon 60/1
Casey Mears 60/1
Danica Patrick 60/1
Michael Waltrip 60/1
Ryan Blaney 60/1
AJ Allmendinger 75/1
Trevor Bayne 75/1
Justin Allgaier 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1