2015 Duck Commander 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions: Kevin Harvick the 17/4 Favorite to Win: After one of the few off weeks of the 2015 season, the Sprint Cup Series returns to action this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway. The 1.5-mile oval produces some of the highest speeds of any track on the schedule, and drivers averaged more than 199 mph during qualifying a year ago. Not surprisingly, restarts can be chaotic as drivers fight for position at such high speeds, and you simply don’t win at Texas without having a car that has plenty of muscle under the hood.
2015 Duck Commander 500 Odds, Free Picks & Predictions: Favorites and Contenders to Win this Week in Sprint Cup Action
The Favorites
No driver has won more races at Texas than Jimmie Johnson. In addition to his series-leading four victories at the track, he has also finished second on five other occasions. More importantly, Johnson has won three of the last five races at Texas, and over the past three seasons, he has led 507 more laps at the 1.5-mile oval than any other driver. Johnson has 11/2 odds on the latest updated NASCAR odds page for this race.
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and since Joey Logano joined forces with Team Penske in 2013, he has been one of the top drivers in the series at Texas. In four starts at the track with the organization, he has compiled a 5.3 average finish and has logged three top-five finishes.
Over the past 20 races at Texas, Matt Kenseth has a resume that stacks up with any driver in the series. During the stretch, he has one win and three second-place finishes to go along with the best driver rating, average running position and average green flag speed of any driver. Kenseth has also finished in the top five in six of his last nine starts at Texas so he is a safe bet to be a factor this weekend.
The Contenders
He went to victory lane a couple of weeks ago at Martinsville, and there is a chance Denny Hamlin could take the checkered flag again this weekend. After all, his 10.8 average finish at Texas ranks third in the series, and in 18 starts, he has 10 top-10s. More importantly, Hamlin is a two-time winner at Texas so he has proven he can seal the deal.
While he may not be the most consistent performer at Texas, Carl Edwards has proven he can seal the deal the 1.5-mile oval. In addition to his three victories at the track, he has logged five top-10s in his last eight starts, including three finishes of third or better. There is no denying his upside.
Although he is still looking for a win at Texas, Brad Keselowski has been knocking on the door of victory lane recently. He has compiled a 7.0 average finish in his last five starts at the track, and during the same stretch, he has logged three finishes of sixth or better, including a third-place finish last fall.
His luck at Texas has been horrible recently, but Jeff Gordon has had a much faster car than his finishes may indicate. He actually did lead 40 laps and finish second at the track last spring, and in the fall event, he led 49 laps and was out front late when he got tangled up in a wreck on a restart. Gordon could have easily swept both races at Texas last year so he shouldn’t be overlooked Saturday night.
He blew an engine at Texas last spring, but Kevin Harvick bounced back with a second-place finish in the fall event at the track. More importantly, Harvick led more laps than any other driver at 1.5-mile ovals last year, and no driver has been better so far in 2015. Plain and simple, he is one of the main contenders at any track right now.
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Sprint Cup – Odds to win the Duck Commander 500 @ Texas Motor Speedway
Kevin Harvick #4
17/4
Jimmie Johnson #48
11/2
Kurt Busch #41
6/1
Matt Kenseth #20
8/1
Brad Keselowski #2
10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. #88
10/1
Jeff Gordon #24
10/1
Joey Logano #22
10/1
Denny Hamlin #11
12/1
Carl Edwards #19
14/1
Martin Truex Jr. #78
14/1
Kasey Kahne #5
20/1
Kyle Larson #42
20/1
Ryan Newman #31
22/1
Tony Stewart #14
33/1
Clint Bowyer #15
40/1
David Ragan #18
50/1
Greg Biffle #16
50/1
Jamie McMurray #1
50/1
Paul Menard #27
50/1
Ryan Blaney #21
100/1
A.J. Allmendinger #47
200/1
Aric Almirola #43
200/1
Austin Dillon #3
200/1
Danica Patrick #10
200/1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. #17
200/1
Brett Moffitt #55
300/1
Casey Mears #13
300/1
Sam Hornish Jr. #9
300/1
Justin Allgaier #51
500/1
Trevor Bayne #6
500/1
Alex Bowman #7
1000/1
Brendan Gaughan #62
1000/1
Brian Scott #33
1000/1
Chris Buescher #34
1000/1
Cole Whitt #35
1000/1
David Gilliland #38
1000/1
J.J Yeley #23
1000/1
Jeb Burton #26
1000/1
Josh Wise #98
1000/1
Landon Cassill #40
1000/1
Matt Dibenedetto #83
1000/1
Michael Annett #46
1000/1
Mike Bliss #32
1000/1
Mike McDowell #95
1000/1
Travis Kvapil #39
1000/1