2014 Toyota Owners 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: After a one-week hiatus, the Cup Series gets back to business at Richmond International Raceway this weekend with Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400. The race will be the third short track event of the 2014 season, but unlike the half-mile short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville, Richmond’s 0.75-mile layout allows for some higher speeds while keeping all the old-fashioned bumping and banging that fans love about short track racing. As a result, Richmond is often referred to as the “action track” by drivers because something always seems to be waiting to erupt. Last year, the excitement came in the final two laps when Kevin Harvick drove from seventh to first, completing a three-wide, racing-winning pass shortly after the final restart to steal the victory from the dominant cars of Clint Bowyer, Matt Kenseth and Juan Pablo Montoya.
The Favorites
Since joining the Cup Series in 2005, Kyle Busch has been the most-consistent driver at Richmond. In addition to his series-leading 7.2 average finish at the short track, he has four wins and four second-place finishes in his 18 starts. Busch has also led the second-most laps of any driver during the stretch and has only finished outside the top five in five of his starts. Busch is a safe bet to be in the mix for the win this weekend.
Not only is Kevin Harvick the only driver with multiple wins in 2014, but he also happens to be the defending winner of this weekend’s race In fact, Harvick is a three-time winner at Richmond overall, and he is the only driver to win multiple races at the short track in the last five races. Since 2005, Harvick’s 8.7 average finish at Richmond ranks third in the series, and no driver has spent more laps in the top 15 during the stretch. The bottom line is that Harvick will be near the front this weekend, and he has proven he can steal the deal.
Virginia native Denny Hamlin has enjoyed a ton of success at his home-state track throughout his career. He is a two-time winner at Richmond, and his 8.9 average finish at the track is the second best in the series. Perhaps more impressively, Hamlin has led more laps than any other driver at Richmond since the start of the 2005 season despite running only 15 of the 18 races during the stretch.
The Dark Horses
His success at Richmond has been more of a recent development, but Carl Edwards has sure been on a roll at the track recently. In the last six races at RIR, he leads all drivers with five top-10s, three top-five finishes and 376 laps led. Edwards’ recent run of success at the short track culminated with his first victory last fall, and don’t be surprised if he makes it two wins in a row at Richmond this weekend.
Richmond has always been kind to Clint Bowyer, and he has been even better at the track since joining Michael Waltrip Racing in 2012. For his career, he owns a 10.1 average finish at the track and has 13 top-12s in 16 starts, including a pair of wins. Meanwhile, Bowyer has three finishes of seventh or better in four starts at Richmond with MWR, including a victory and a second-place finish.
Sleeper Special
He has been picking up steam in recent weeks, and this weekend, A.J. Allmendinger will get a chance to make some noise at a track that has been one of his best. He is riding a streak of seven straight finishes of 17th or better at Richmond, and in his last six starts, he has five top-15s. Allmendinger managed a pair of top-15s at RIR last year while driving for his current JTG Daugherty Racing team so he could be within striking distance of an upset Saturday night.
Big Name to Avoid
While he hasn’t been terrible at Richmond, Brad Keselowski has never really been a serious contender for a win at the short track either. In nine starts, he has a mediocre 20.1 average finish. Granted, he has several top-15 runs, but he only has two top-10s at RIR and has never cracked the top five. Keselowski would have to make a sizeable leap to end up in victory lane this weekend.
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