2014 Toyota Owners 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The Cup Series heads to Richmond International Raceway this weekend for Saturday night’s Toyota Owners 400, and if the third short track event of the year is anything like the first two, it is going to be exciting. The first short track race ended with Carl Edwards surviving multiple rain delays and a rash of tire failures to hold off a surprise field of challengers at Bristol. At Martinsville, extreme tire wear created a bizarre pace to the race that ended with seven-time track winner Jimmie Johnson getting outdueled by Kurt Busch, who hadn’t even had a top-five at the track for almost a decade. Now, the series heads to a Richmond track that has always been known for wild finishes that have earned it the “action track” nickname. Needless to say, Saturday’s race could end with a surprise face in victory lane, and here is a closer look at some underdogs worth targeting.
It has been a season of highs and lows for Kurt Busch, and while he has been terribly inconsistent, he could still be worth a look this weekend at his current 20/1 odds. For one, Busch is a former winner at Richmond. Meanwhile, he managed to finish ninth and second at the track last year while driving for a single-car Furniture Row Racing operation. This year, he has even better equipment to work with at Stewart-Haas Racing, and it has already paid off with a win at the most-recent short track event at Martinsville. Busch has always been one of the better drivers at short tracks, and he could show it again this weekend.
His lone win at Richmond came back in 2003, but Ryan Newman has been far too consistent at the short track to be a 28/1 longshot to win this weekend. After all, he has nine top-15s in his last 10 starts at Richmond, including five straight. During the stretch, Newman has six top-10 finishes, including a third-place run last fall. Newman is also good for at least one win a year, and the victory usually comes at a track where he has had a lot of past success. Don’t be surprised if his trip to victory lane in 2014 comes at Richmond.
On one hand, it’s not hard to see why Marcos Ambrose is a 75/1 longshot to win this weekend at Richmond. A majority of his success at the short track came very early in his career, and last season, he didn’t log a single top-five finish. However, Ambrose has been a new man in 2014, and not only does he already have a pair of top-five finishes, but both have come at short track events. Ambrose and his Richard Petty Motorsports team seems to have a stout short track package working this year, and with that in mind, he could be a steal at his current odds.
Bettors looking for a serious sleeper this weekend should consider taking a chance on A.J. Allmendinger. He is a 150/1 longshot to win Saturday night, but he Richmond has always been one of his better tracks. He has reeled off seven straight finishes of 17th or better at the track, and during the stretch, he has five top-15s, including two straight. Equally as important, Allmendinger enters this weekend with some momentum on his side. He has top-15 finishes in three of the last four races, and he has clearly found his footing with his new JTG Daugherty Racing team. Allmendinger is running well just in time to visit one of his favorite tracks, and the result could be an upset victory. At the very least, he is worth a small flier.
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