2014 The Profit on CNBC 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: With the always-unpredictable Dayton 500 in the books, the 2014 Sprint Cup season can really get down to business, starting with this weekend’s The Profit on CNBC 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. The flat, 1.0-mile oval has one of the trickier layouts in the series thanks to two sets of corners with drastically different layouts. As a result, finding a perfect setup is tough, and passing is even harder. Track position and pit strategy are crucial, and last March, Carl Edwards put everything together to notch the win, beating Jimmie Johnson and Denny Hamlin to the line.
The Favorites
Pick a statistic at Phoenix, and Jimmie Johnson probably tops the list. His 6.3 average finish at the track is by far the best in the series, and in 21 starts, he has 17 top-10s, including four victories. Johnson has also piled up 13 top-five finishes in his last 15 starts at PIR, and he leads all drivers in laps led and driver rating during the stretch.
No driver has been better at Phoenix the past two years than Kevin Harvick. He has a 4.3 average finish during the stretch, picking up two wins and a second-place finis;.xkho
h. Overall, Harvick is a four-time winner at PIR, and the four victories are his most at any track on the schedule.
His 10.9 average finish at Phoenix is the second best among active drivers, and in 17 starts at the track, he has seven top-three finishes, including three in his last four starts at the track. In his last two starts in the March race at the track, Hamlin has a win and a third-place finish.
The Dark Horses
Defending race-winner Carl Edwards hasn’t exactly been consistent at Phoenix, but he has had a knack for delivering strong finishes. In his last seven starts at the track, he has three top-two finishes, including a pair of wins. For his career, he has finished seventh or better in 10 of his 19 starts at PIR.
He is coming off a huge win in the Daytona 500, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. might make it back-to-back wins to open the year. After all, he finished fifth and fourth in two starts at Phoenix last year, and while he had been a bit of a slump at the track prior to last year, he did win back-to-back races at the track in 2003 and 2004.
Sleeper Special
Although he is known more for his consistency than for his ability to win races, Ryan Newman has enjoyed a great run at Phoenix recently. He has six top-10s in his last eight starts at the track, picking up five top-five finishes, including a win. During the stretch, only Jimmie Johnson has managed more top-five finishes than Newman.
Big Name to Avoid
He is normally one of the most consistent drivers in the series, but Clint Bowyer has had his issues at Phoenix. Statistically, it ranks as his fifth-worst track on the schedule, and in 17 starts, he has just two top-five finishes. Worse yet, he has gone 11 straight starts at the track without logging a top-five.
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