2014 The Profit on CNBC 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: After last weekend’s wild finish at Daytona, the action should get a little more predictable this weekend at Phoenix. However, that doesn’t mean that bettors can’t find a few dark horses worth betting on. Granted, there won’t be as many longshots in play with a legitimate chance to make some noise, but with NASCAR’s new rule that has placed a huge emphasis on winning, teams will be willing to do just about anything to get to victory lane. As a result, there are still some drivers getting longer odds that are worth taking a chance on, and here is a closer look at the top underdogs for Sunday’s The Profit on CNBC 500 at Phoenix International Raceway.
He has made a career out of being a solid top-15 driver, but Ryan Newman has been much more than a top-15 driver at Phoenix recently. In his last eight starts at the track, he has six top-10s, five top-five finishes and a win. His five top-five finishes during the stretch are second only to Phoenix ace Jimmie Johnson, and despite posting elite numbers at the track, Newman is a 33/1 longshot to win Sunday. He could be a steal for bettors.
Rookie Austin Dillon has never made a Cup start at Phoenix, and given his inexperience, it isn’t a big surprise to see him listed as a 50/1 longshot to win this weekend. However, bettors may want to take advantage of his long odds. After all, he is driving for Richard Childress Racing, and the organization has been excellent at Phoenix lately. All three RCR teams have finished in the top 20 in the last three races at the track, and Dillon will actually be driving for the same team that has won two of the past three races at Phoenix, albeit with Kevin Harvick behind the wheel. Still, Dillon should have a great setup to work with this weekend, which should give him a chance to pull off the upset.
Last year, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. struggled with consistency, but he did manage to deliver two decent starts at Phoenix. He finished 16th in his track debut in March, and he followed it up with a 12th-place run in the fall. The fact that Stenhouse showed such a natural feel for Phoenix compared to the other tracks on the schedule certainly bodes well, and now that he has a full year of experience at the Cup level under his belt, he could be primed for a real breakout at the track in 2014. At his 50/1 odds, he could be worth taking a chance on.
He is a raw talent, but Kyle Larson could be worth reaching for at Phoenix at his current 75/1 odds. For one, he qualified in the top 10 and has been strong in practice this weekend. Meanwhile, he will be driving for a Chip Ganassi Racing team that has finished in the top 15 in five straight starts at Phoenix and in the top 12 in four straight starts.
Bettors looking for a serious longshot this weekend should definitely take a flier on A.J. Allmendinger this weekend. He has been surprisingly consistent at Phoenix, logging top-20 finishes in eight of his nine starts. Perhaps more importantly, he ranks in the top 15 in several scoring loop categories, including seventh in quality passes. In other words, Allmendinger has been very competitive at Phoenix throughout this career despite driving for several different teams. At his current 150/1 odds, he could be the ultimate steal.
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