2014 Sylvania 300 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series heads back to New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend for the second race of the 2014 Chase for the Sprint Cup. The flat, 1.0-mile track is notorious for difficult passing conditions, and as a result, crew chiefs are constantly working pit strategy to try to get their drivers out front. Fittingly, pit strategy proved to be crucial when the series visited New Hampshire earlier this year. Eventual-winner Brad Keselowski simply took four tires and fuel on every stop, but drivers like Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon tried to stretch their fuel and ran out of gas on the final lap while running in the top three. A variety of strategies will likely come into play again this Sunday, and with that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers that could end up in victory lane.
The Favorites
When the series visited New Hampshire in July, Brad Keselowski was the class of the field, driving to the front early and often and eventually securing the win. Not only will he be going for a season sweep at the track Sunday, but he will also be going for a personal three-peat, having won at Richmond and Chicagoland the past two weeks. Keselowski also owns a series-leading 4.8 average finish in the last six races at New Hampshire, making him the clear frontrunner this weekend.
He won at New Hampshire in 2006, and while Kyle Busch hasn’t been back to victory lane since, he sure has been close recently. In fact, he has finished second in each of the past three races at the track. Considering no other driver even has three top-five finishes during the same span Busch has reeled off three straight runner-up efforts, there is a pretty good chance he will be one of the best on the track this weekend.
Flat tracks have always been his strong suit so it should come as no surprise that Denny Hamlin has been excellent at New Hampshire throughout his career. His 8.9 average finish at the track is the best in the series, and he has finished sixth or better in eight of 17 starts. More importantly, Hamlin is a two-time winner at New Hampshire, and no driver has led more laps in the past five races at the track.
The Dark Horses
Although he was never bad at New Hampshire, Matt Kenseth’s move to Joe Gibbs Racing last year took his performance at the track to another level. He finished ninth in his first start at the track with the organization last July, and he won the September race at the track. This year, Kenseth picked up a fourth-place finish at the track in the July event, and he should have a solid shot at defending his win in the September race this weekend.
It’s hard to know just how focused Tony Stewart can be on racing thiese days with all that is going on off the track, but the fact is that he is one of the best in the business at New Hampshire. In his last six starts at the track, he has four finishes of seventh or better, including a win and a second-place finish. Overall, Stewart is a three-time winner at the track, and he has finished second on five other occasions.
While he is winless this season, Clint Bowyer has always been able to make some noise at New Hampshire. After all, he is a two-time winner at the track for his career, and he came within a lap of winning a third race at the track in 2011 before running out of gas on the final lap with the lead. Bowyer has also finished sixth or better in three of his last five starts at New Hampshire.
Sleeper Special
He has only made one career Cup start at New Hampshire, but Kyle Larson certainly made a strong first impression. He finished third in his first start at the track in July, and considering he has been on a roll in recent weeks, his return trip to New Hampshire Sunday could end in something special. Larson enters this weekend’s race with eight top-12 finishes in his last nine starts, including four straight.
Big Name to Avoid
Not only has Carl Edwards never won a race at New Hampshire, but he hasn’t really come close in recent years. He has managed just three top-10s in his last 11 starts at the track, and worse yet, he hasn’t recorded a single top-five finish during the stretch. Overall, Edwards has managed just two top-five finishes in 20 starts at New Hampshire.
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