2014 STP 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid

2014 STP 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series heads to Martinsville Speedway this weekend, and while the half-mile, paperclip-shaped track is the smallest and slowest on the schedule, there is never a shortage of excitement. Drivers often bump and bang to gain position, and when they aren’t trading paint on the track, they are often getting together on one of the tightest pit roads in the series. Last spring, Jimmie Johnson conquered the track, pit road an everyone else en route to a dominating victory. He led 356 of the 500 laps, leaving little doubt that he had the best car all afternoon.

The Favorites

Whenever the series heads to Martinsville, Jimmie Johnson is going to be factor. He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and in 24 starts, he has piled up eight victories and 17 top-five finishes. He also leads the series with a 5.3 average finish at the track, and in the last 10 races, he is the only driver that has led more than 1,000 laps. Johnson is basically a lock to have a shot at winning Sunday, and thus far, he has closed the deal at a ridiculous 33 percent clip.

He is one of the most-accomplished drivers in NASCAR history, and Martinsville might just be Jeff Gordon’s best track on the schedule. He has finished in the top 10 in 34 of his 42 starts, and he has made eight trips to victory lane. In fact, Gordon won at Martinsville last fall, and he a great chance to make it back-to-back wins at the track this weekend.

Since the start of the 2008 season, Denny Hamlin’s four victories at Martinsville are tied with Jimmie Johnson for the most in the series. For his career, his 8.1 average finish at the track ranks third in the series, and in 16 starts, he has finished eighth or better 13 times. Hamlin actually missed the race at Martinsville last spring while recovering from a back injury, but he will be a major factor Sunday.

The Dark Horses

Although he is still looking for his first victory at Martinsville, Clint Bowyer has been inching closer ever since joining Michael Waltrip Racing. In four starts at the track with MWR, he has compiled a 5.0 average finish and finished in the top five in three straight starts. Last year, Bowyer finished in the top three in both starts at Martinsville, finishing a career-best second in the spring event.

He has been steadily improving at Martinsville throughout his career, and Brad Keselowski could be on the verge of a breakthrough. His 10.4 average finish at the track ranks fourth among active drivers, and he has finished in the top 10 in each of the last four starts. More importantly, Keselowski has three straight finishes of sixth or better at Martinsville, including a career-best fourth-place run last fall.

Sleeper Special

While he didn’t even have a ride for either race at Martinsville a year ago, A.J. Allmendinger could have a shot at the upset when he returns to the track this weekend. After all, he has six top-15 finishes in his last nine starts at Martinsville, including four in his last five starts. More importantly, he has finished as high as second at the track.

Big Name to Avoid

Although Kurt Busch actually won at Martinsville early in his career, he has been awful at the track for the better part of the decade. He has gone 16 starts without logging a top-10 finish and 18 starts since his last top-five finish. Worse yet, Busch has more finishes outside the top 25 at Martinsville than finishes inside the top 10.

Check the latest NASCAR Vegas Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: