2014 Sprint Cup Series Preview: Championship Longshots Worth Betting On

2014 Sprint Cup Series Preview: Championship Longshots Worth Betting On: Heading into the 2014 Sprint Cup Series season, defending series champ Jimmie Johnson is the unquestioned favorite to win the title. In fact, he is getting 2/1 odds to win his record-tying seventh Sprint Cup. After Johnson, Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Denny Hamlin and Brad Keselowski are the only other drivers with 10/1 odds or better to claim the series crown. While there is little doubt that this short list of drivers does in fact include the best in the sport today, the offseason changes to the playoff format does throw a potential wrench into the equation. NASCAR increased the Chase field from 12 to 16 and added in driver eliminations after every three races of the Chase, leading up to a winner-take-all finale between four drivers. In other words, NASCAR has made it easier to make the playoffs and has created a scenario where four drivers have an equal shot at winning the title. Throw in the fact that this is the first year of a brand new championship format, and there has never been a better time to gamble on a surprise driver winning the title. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few drivers getting longer odds that could end up winning the Sprint Cup in 2014.

In the past four seasons, Kevin Harvick has finished third in the final standings three times, and for his career, he has finished in the top five in the final standings on five occasions. Only Mark Martin has more top-5 finishes in the final standings without a title than Harvick, but despite his track record of consistency, he is only an 18/1 favorite to win the title in 2014. Granted, his longer odds are likely partly related to his offseason move to Stewart-Haas Racing, but the move is at the very least lateral if not an upgrade in terms of resources and equipment. Meanwhile, the new playoff format should be beneficial to Harvick, who always seems to be near the top of the standings all season long. Harvick’s consistency has an excellent chance of getting him into the championship finale, and under the new system, he will just need one strong performance to claim the Sprint Cup.

The last time NASCAR made a drastic change to its playoff format was in 2004, and Kurt Busch promptly won the inaugural Chase to claim his first-career title. Heading into the 2014 season, not only does is there another new playoff format to deal with, but Busch also finds himself with his first quality ride since 2011 after inking an offseason deal with Stewart-Haas Racing. He is lurking under the radar as an 18/1 underdog to win the title, and despite not being a serious title threat the past several years, Busch could be a bargain for bettors. Keep in mind that he managed the second-most top-5 finishes of his career last year despite driving for a single-car operation. The former champ’s talent has never been questioned, and losing his ride with Team Penkse prior to the 2012 season seems to have to have forced him to focus and mature behind the wheel. If he can keep that same focus now that he is back behind the wheel of top-notch equipment, Busch certainly has the talent to make a run at the title.

Although he has had a couple of mediocre seasons in a row, counting out Carl Edwards completely is a bad idea. For one, his career pattern has been one great year followed by two average ones. He finished third in points in 2005, second in 2008 and second in 2011. In the other six seasons, he finished ninth or worse in points five times. Edwards is a 20/1 underdog to win the title in 2014, but when he has been at his best, he has been championship-caliber. History says that Edwards is due for one of his better performances this year, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him among the final four drivers heading into the season finale at Homestead. By the way, Edwards is a two-time winner at the track so he would be tough to handle if he indeed is eligible for the title.

When I saw that Clint Bowyer was a 25/1 longshot to win the Sprint Cup title in 2014, I was shocked. After all, he is just entering his prime as a driver, and since moving to Michael Waltrip racing at the start of the 2012 season, he has been excellent. In fact, Bowyer’s past two seasons with MWR have been by far the best of his career. He has tallied a career-high top-5s in both seasons, compiling one of the three-best average finishes in the series in each season. Heck, Bowyer finished second in the final standings in 2012. Granted, Bowyer doesn’t win a bunch of races, but 5 of his 8 career victories have come in the playoffs. The guy has been one of the most consistent in the series the past two years so making the Chase and reaching the finale certainly isn’t out of the question. From there, Bowyer is just one more clutch Chase performance away from winning a championship.

Bettors looking for a serious dark horse should consider Marcos Ambrose. He is a 500/1 longshot to win the title in 2014 and for good reason. After all, the guy didn’t even have a top-5 finish last season. However, Ambrose is arguably the best road racer in NASCAR, and in 2011 and 2012, he won a road course event. Under the new playoff format, a win would basically ensure that Ambrose is a part of the Chase. From there, a couple of decent runs on his part and some bad luck by the other title contenders would be all it takes for Ambrose to survive the early eliminations. Yes, the scenario is unlikely, but it’s not like it takes a big wager to yield a big payout at 500/1 odds. The bottom line is that Ambrose has a realistic chance to make the playoffs because of his road racing expertise, and there is no driver getting comparably long odds that has that same chance.

Check the latest NASCAR Vegas Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: