2014 Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: Phoenix International Raceway will be the site of the third and final race of the Eliminator Round, and when the checkered flag waves Sunday, the four drivers that will compete for the 2014 Sprint Cup championship will be set in stone. Heading into this weekend’s race, the eight remaining title contenders are separated by just 18 points, and no driver has guaranteed themselves a spot in the championship race at this point. Needless to say, an intense, unpredictable race is likely on tap at a Phoenix track that is already known for its difficult passing conditions. Here is a closer look at the drivers that could come out on top in the desert.
The Favorites
He crushed the competition at Phoenix earlier this year, and Kevin Harvick is also the defending winner of the fall race at the track. In fact, he has won three of the last four races at Phoenix, and his five wins at the track are the most of any driver. Harvick has also logged the best average finish and led the most laps in the last five races at PIR, and a Phoenix three-peat is a real possibility Sunday.
His mini slump appears to be over after his win at Texas last weekend, and Jimmie Johnson has always been one of the best in the business at Phoenix. His 6.3 average finish at the track leads all drivers, and in 22 starts, he has amassed 18 top-10s, 14 top-five finishes and four wins. Plus, Johnson owns a stellar 3.7 average finish in his last three starts at PIR.
Although he has yet to win at Phoenix, Brad Keselowski has been on a tear at the track the past few seasons. His 5.8 average finish in the last five races at PIR is the second best in the series, and he has finished sixth or better four times during the stretch. Keselowski finished a career-best third at Phoenix earlier this year, and it is only a matter of time before he ends up in victory lane.
The Contenders
His last win at Phoenix came back in 2004, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been excellent at the track dating back to past season. He has reeled off three straight top-five finishes at PIR, and his 3.7 average finish over that stretch is tied for the best in the series. Junior finished second at Phoenix back in March, and his recent performances suggest that he will be a factor Sunday.
The move to Team Penske has turned Joey Logano into a contender at Phoenix the last two years. He finished ninth at the track last fall, and he followed the top-10 finish up with a fourth-place run earlier this year. More importantly, Logano has led a total of 104 laps in his last two starts at PIR combined, including 71 back in March.
While his overall record at Phoenix isn’t all that impressive, Kasey Kahne has been at his best in the fall race at the track. In his last three starts at PIR in November, he has finished second, fourth and first. For whatever reason, he has been significantly better at Phoenix in the fall, and recent history suggests that Kahne will be a threat to win this weekend.
The Sleeper
Although he remains winless in 2014, Ryan Newman has quietly been one of the steadiest performers at Phoenix for the last few seasons. He has seven top-10s in his last nine starts at the track, including two straight. More importantly, Newman has six top-five finishes at Phoenix over the same stretch, including a win in 2010. He could surprise the big names this weekend.
Big Name to Avoid
He hasn’t been awful at Phoenix, but Matt Kenseth hasn’t exactly shown much muscle at the track either. After all, he has managed just one top-10 in his last seven starts at PIR, and he hasn’t logged a top-five finish in his last 13 starts at the track. Kenseth would have to significantly improve on his recent results to have a shot at winning Sunday.
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