2014 Oral-B USA 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend from some action under the lights on a holiday weekend at one of the fastest tracks on the schedule. Atlanta shares its 1.5-mile layout with several other tracks on the schedule, but its wide racing groove and ample banking push the speeds to another level compared to many of the other ovals of the same distance. Not surprisingly, plenty of big names from big names that have the talent, horsepower and downforce to tackle such a high-speed track have had success at Atlanta over the years. In fact, the top-four drivers at the track in terms of average finish over the last 20 races are all former series champs. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers with the best chance of ending up in victory lane this weekend.
The Favorites
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Kevin Harvick has been on an absolute tear at Atlanta in the Nationwide Series recently. He has finished fourth or better in his last seven starts at the track, compiling a ridiculous 2.4 average finish. During the stretch, Harvick has two wins and two second-place finishes.
Although he has never won a Nationwide race at Atlanta, Kyle Busch has come very close on several occasions. In fact, he finished second in last year’s race for the fifth time in his career and the fourth time in his last five starts at the track. Overall, Busch has finished third or better in six of his nine starts at Atlanta.
While he hasn’t made a Nationwide start at Atlanta since 2010, history says Matt Kenseth will be a major factor in his return to the track this weekend. In 10 career Nationwide starts at Atlanta, Kenseth has eight top-10s, including seven top-five finishes. More importantly, he is a two-time winner at the track and has also finished second on two occasions.
He has always been a contender at the Nationwide level, and Joey Logano should be a serious threat this weekend at Atlanta. He has finished sixth in all three of his previous starts at the track, and his 6.0 average finish is the best among drivers in the field this weekend that have made multiple starts at Atlanta. Not to mention the fact that he has finished in the top five in all but two of his Nationwide starts in 2014.
The Dark Horses
After sitting out three races, Tony Stewart will return this weekend. While there is no way of tell how mentally prepared he will be to perform, there is no denying his record at Atlanta. Over the past 20 races, Stewart’s 8.8 average finish is the best in the series, and in 19 starts during that stretch, he has nine top-five finishes. For his career, he is a three-time winner at the track.
While Roush Fenway Racing has struggled overall, Carl Edwards has still found his way to a couple of wins in 2014, and he could sneak into victory lane again this weekend. After all, he is a three-time winner at Atlanta for his career, and in 19 starts, he has amassed nine top-five finishes.
It has been a rollercoaster year for Kurt Busch, but he could be in for one of his strong runs this weekend at Atlanta. For one, he has three wins at the track for his career. More importantly, he has been on a tear at Atlanta recently, compiling a 5.6 average finish in his last five starts and winning at the track in 2010.
Sleeper Special
He is still looking for a win in 2014, but Atlanta has been kind to Brian Vickers in recent years. In last eight starts at the track, he has seven finishes of 11th or better, including five straight. In fact, Vickers has an 8.0 average finish in his last five starts at Atlanta.
Big Name to Avoid
Atlanta has never been kind to Clint Bowyer. For his career, he owns a 19.8 average finish at the track in 13 starts, and he has never recorded a top-five finish at Atlanta. Meanwhile, Bowyer has finished outside the top 20 in five of his last six starts at the track, and he has failed to crack the top 25 in his last three starts.
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