2014 MyAFibStory.com 400 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Chase for the Sprint Cup kicks off this weekend at Chicagoland Speedway, and while the series has yet to visit the track this season, drivers and teams will already be very familiar with the layout. After all, Sunday’s race will be the seventh of the season held at a 1.5-mile track. Overall, Chicagoland doesn’t produce speeds quite as fast as some other 1.5-mile tracks, but it still take a combination of horsepower and downforce to win. As a result, many of the big names in the sport have enjoyed a lot of success, and it is no coincidence that several championship contenders highlight this week’s list of drivers to watch Sunday.
The Favorites
Although he has never won at Chicagoland, Jimmie Johnson has been close on numerous occasions. In fact, his 8.9 average finish at the track is the second best in the series, and in 12 starts, he has only finished outside the top 10 twice. More importantly, Johnson has seven top-five finishes at Chicagoland, including finishes of second and fifth in his last two starts, and no driver has led more laps at the track in the last three races.
The first two times the Cup Series raced at Chicagoland, Kevin Harvick ended up in victory lane. Recently, he has been inching closer to another victory, notching a pair of top-three finishes in his last three starts. Overall, he has seven finishes of fourth or better in 13 starts at Chicagoland, and in 2014, no driver has led more laps at 1.5-mile tracks than Harvick.
Coming off his series-leading fourth win of the year last weekend at Richmond, Brad Keselowski will try for another trip to victory lane at a Chicagoland track where he has been excellent lately. In the last three races at Chicagoland, he leads all drivers with a 4.3 average finish. He has also led the third-most laps at the track during the stretch, winning the 2012 race.
Other Contenders
While he is winless in 2014, Matt Kenseth has been excellent at 1.5-mile tracks this year. In fact, he is the only driver in the series to finish in the top 10 in all six races at 1.5-mile tracks so far. By the way, he is also the defending winner of this weekend’s race so there is a good chance he won’t be winless anymore after the checkered flag waves Sunday.
It’s been a chaotic year for Tony Stewart on and off the track, but no driver has been better at Chicagoland since the track became a part of the Cup Series schedule. His 8.5 average finish at the track is the best in the series, and more importantly, his three victories lead all drivers. Overall, Stewart has eight top-five finishes in 12 starts at Chicagoland, and he has finished in the top 10 in each of his last six starts at the track.
He can run as hot and cold as any driver in the series, but Kyle Busch has showed some serious muscle at Chicagoland on more than one occasion. He is former winner at the track, and he has finished fourth or better four times in nine starts. Meanwhile, Busch has finished fourth and second in his last two starts at Chicagoland so a return trip to victory lane could be in the cards.
Sleeper Special
His season has been marred by inconsistency, but the last time the series visited a 1.5-mile track, Kasey Kahne ended up in victory lane. In fact, a majority of his career wins have come at tracks with a 1.5-mile layout. Granted, he has yet to win a race at Chicagoland, but he does have six straight top-15s at the track and has finished sixth or better three times during the stretch.
Big Name to Avoid
While he has won plenty of races in recent years, Denny Hamlin has had his issues at Chicagoland. He only managed a 20.5 average finish in eight starts, and he has five finishes outside the top 15, including three straight. More concerning is the fact that Hamlin has three finishes outside the top 30 at Chicagoland, including two in his last three starts at the track.
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