2014 Kobalt 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series marches on with a trip to Las Vegas Motor Speedway this weekend. The 1.5-mile oval has emerged as one of the fastest track on the schedule after several repaves and the addition of progressive banking have transformed the speedway from a flat, single-groove track to a multi-groove track with speeds that average more than 190 mph in qualifying. While all the changes have taken a toll on the performance of some drivers, a majority of the big names in NASCAR have starred at Las Vegas. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers that have the best chance to challenge for a win this weekend.
The Favorites
He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Matt Kenseth has three wins at Las Vegas in his career. Meanwhile, his 11.6 average finish at the track is the third best in the series, and in 13 starts, he has six top-five finishes. Equally as important is the fact that Kenseth led all drivers with four wins at 1.5-mile tracks last year, compiling a series-leading 5.7 average finish.
With four career wins at Las Vegas, Jimmie Johnson has been to victory lane at the track more times than any other driver. He also leads all drivers with a 9.5 average finish at Vegas and ranks first in a variety of statistical categories, including average running position, laps led, fastest laps run and driver rating. In 12 total starts at the track, Johnson has finished sixth or better seven times.
His 9.7 average finish at Las Vegas is the second best in the series, and Carl Edwards has been even better at the track in recent years. He has reeled off five straight top-five finishes at Vegas, winning the 2011 event. In his last seven starts at the track, Edwards has finished sixth or better five times and has made a pair of trips to victory lane.
The Dark Horses
Although there are some questions mark about Tony Stewart because his broken leg is still not 100 percent healed, it is tough to overlook his record at Las Vegas. He has a 5.3 average finish in his last four starts at the track, winning the 2012 race, finishing second in the 2011 race and leading the most laps in both events.
He has never won a race at Las Vegas, but Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been on a roll at the track recently and on roll to open the 2014 season. He followed up a victory at the Daytona 500 with a second-place run at Phoenix last weekend. Now, he heads to a track where he has six finishes of 11th or better in his last seven starts, including three straight top-10s.
Sleeper Special
Before veteran Jeff Burton becomes a full-time announcer in 2015, he is going to be a part-time driver for Michael Waltrip Racing in 2014. He will make his first start of the year this weekend, and it couldn’t come at a better track. His 11.9 average finish at Las Vegas is the fourth best in the series, and in 16 starts, he has 12 top-15s, including two trips to victory lane.
Big Name to Avoid
Nevada native Kurt Busch hasn’t exactly given his home-state fans a lot to cheer about. In 13 starts at Las Vegas, he has amassed an ugly 21.8 average finish. Meanwhile, he has managed just three top-10s and one top-five finish at the track while finishing 20th or worse on seven occasions.
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