2014 Kobalt 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The 2014 Cup Series season continues to heat up with a trip to the speedy Las Vegas Motor Speedway for this weekend’s Kobalt 400. As is the case with most 1.5-mile tracks, the big names in the sport have had their share of success at Vegas. However, the track’s layout can also create the type of long green flag runs that can bring fuel mileage into play. This year in particular with NASCAR’s expanding the Chase, smaller teams are going to be looking for every opportunity to steal away a win and steal a spot in the playoffs. Sunday’s race will likely be the first big opportunity to use some pit strategy to do just that, and with that in mind, drivers that have been able to hang near the front at Vegas could have a chance to pull off an upset with the right strategy. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few underdogs that could be worth betting on this weekend.
While he is certainly inexperienced, bettors may want to jump on Ricky Stenhouse Jr. this weekend at his 50/1 odds rather than waiting for the second-year driver to add to his steadily-improving resume. He finished 18th at Las Vegas last year, and while the result wasn’t great, it also wasn’t bad considering it was just the seventh Cup start of his career. Stenhouse has made some serious strides since his first trip to Vegas, closing out the 2013 season in a high note and starting strong in 2014. Driving for a Roush Fenway Racing team that has always been excellent at Vegas, his second trip to the track could be a special one.
His overall record at Las Vegas is inconsistent, but Jamie McMurray has been running well at the track the past few seasons. He has three top-15s in his last five starts at Vegas, including two straight. He has also finished in the top 10 twice during the stretch. McMurray has always been a driver that runs hot and cold, but when he is dialed in, this is a guy that has won the Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400. He is running well at Vegas right now so he could be worth taking a chance on at his current 75/1 odds.
Given his ever-improving resume at Las Vegas, Paul Menard is incredibly underrated at his current 100/1 odds. He has finished 17th or better in four straight starts at the track, he has finished in the top 12 in three straight starts at the track, and he has finished in the top 10 in his last two starts at the track. Clearly, Menard is heading in the right direction at Vegas, and if the current trend continues, he should be in the mix for a win sooner rather than later. Don’t pass up taking a chance on Menard at his long odds.
It is easy to understand why Jeff Burton is a 150/1 longshot to win this weekend. After all, the veteran’s best days are behind him, and he is only running a handful of races in 2014 as he prepares to become a full-time announcer in 2015. That being said, bettors shouldn’t overlook him this weekend as he prepares for his first start of the season. Keep in mind that Burton’s 11.9 average finish at Las Vegas is the fourth best in series history, and in 16 starts at the track, he has 12 top-15s, including a pair of victories. He will be driving for a strong organization in Michael Waltrip Racing, and Burton made sure to pick his best tracks when he decided on his part-time schedule this season. He is the ultimate upside bet this weekend.
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