2014 GoBowling.com 400 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: For the second time in less than two months, the Cup Series will head to Pocono Raceway. Although the track conditions will no doubt be different from those the teams faced in the June event, Pocono’s unique triangle shape and sweeping flat corners ensure that drivers will have their hands full whenever the series visits the track. In addition to making it hard to find a comfortable setup, Pocono’s layout makes passing very difficult. As a result, restarts tend to be chaotic as drivers scramble for position on fresh tires, and crew chiefs are constantly using pit strategy to get their drivers out front. With that in mind, here is a closer look at the drivers that could end up in victory lane this weekend.
The Favorites
Fresh off a win at Indianapolis, Jeff Gordon will try to win at a Pocono track that has flat corners that are similar to those at Indy. Perhaps more importantly, Gordon has been excellent at Pocono over the years, especially in the August race. He has finished eight straight top-10s in the August event, including finishes of second and first in his last two starts. Overall, Gordon’s six wins at Pocono are the most among active drivers, and his 10.0 average finish ranks second in the series.
He is a three-time winner at Pocono, and Jimmie Johnson enters Sunday’s race with a series-leading 8.7 average finish at the track. Meanwhile, Johnson has finished in the top 15 in his last 14 starts at Pocono, and during the stretch, he has 11 top-10s, including nine finishes of sixth or better. He is one of the safest bets to be in contention for a win this weekend.
His fourth-place finish at Pocono in June served as a reminder that Denny Hamlin is still one of the best in the business at the track. He is a four-time winner at the Pocono for his career, and he has 10 finishes of sixth or better in 17 total starts. Meanwhile, his 667 laps led at Pocono since 2005 are 203 more than any other driver.
The Contenders
He nearly won at Pocono in June, but a piece of trash became stuck on Brad Keselowski’s grill in the closing laps, forcing him to give up the lead to prevent overheating. He still finished and led a race-high 95 laps on the day, and in his last six starts at Pocono, he has four top-six finishes, including a win in the August race in 2011. After bad luck robbed him of a win at the track a couple of months ago, Keselowski should be plenty motivated to close the deal this time around.
While he runs incredibly hot and cold at Pocono, there is no denying that Kasey Kahne has plenty of upside at the track. After all, he is the defending winner of this weekend’s race and a two-time winner at the track overall. Meanwhile, he has finished first and second in his last two starts in the August race at Pocono. Kahne isn’t the most consistent option, but he is a proven winner at the track.
Although the most recent of his two wins at Pocono came back in 2007, Kurt Busch has been knocking on the door of another win at the track recently. He has finished seventh or better in five of his last six starts at Pocono, and during the stretch, he has finished third or better four times. In fact, Busch has finished third in his last two starts at the track. He should be in the mix this weekend.
Sleeper Special
Rookie Kyle Larson is still looking for his first win, but he has knocked on the door of victory lane several times this year, including at Pocono in June when he finished fifth in his first-ever start at the track. Meanwhile, he has been a consistent force at flat tracks recently, following his fifth-place run at Pocono with a third-place run at New Hampshire and a seventh-place run at Indianapolis. Larson is going to be winning races sooner rather than later, and his first victory could come Sunday.
Big Name to Avoid
Although he is normally one of the best drivers in the series, Pocono has been able to get the better of Matt Kenseth more often than not. He has never been to victory lane at the track, and in his last 14 starts at Pocono, he doesn’t have any top-five finishes. In fact, Kenseth has just two top-10s in his last 12 starts at the track and has finished outside the top 20 in his last four starts.
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