2014 Food City 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Dark Horses, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: After a trip to the speedy Las Vegas Motor Speedway last weekend, the Cup Series will get back to some old school racing this weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. The half-mile oval has a reputation for producing some of the roughest racing in the series, and many a race has been one with a tap from the front bumper. Not surprisingly, not every driver is comfortable with the bumping and banging at Bristol, and some of the biggest names in the series have had issues at the track. With that in mind, here is a preview of Sunday’s Food City 500.
The Favorites
His 9.9 average finish at Bristol is the best in the series, and since joining the series in 2005, no driver has more wins at the track than Kyle Busch. In addition to his five trips to victory lane, he has finished second on three other occasions. Busch also leads all drivers in laps led, fastest laps run and driver rating at Bristol since joining the Cup Series.
He picked up his third career win at Bristol last summer, and Matt Kenseth has seven top-10s in his last 10 starts at the track, including five finishes of sixth or better. Meanwhile, Kenseth ranks either first or second in just about every scoring loop category since NASCAR started using the system in 2005. When he shows up at Bristol, he usually has a car capable of getting to victory lane.
In addition to becoming just the fifth driver ever to start to the year with three straight top-two finishes, Dale Earnhardt Jr. has actually been great at Bristol throughout his career. In fact, his 9.4 average finish in the last 20 races at the track is the best in the series. During the stretch, he has 18 top-15 finishes, including a win. For the last decade, no driver has been more consistently in contention at Bristol than Junior.
The Dark Horses
Fresh off a win last weekend at Las Vegas, Brad Keselowski will head to a Bristol track where he has two wins in the last five races. He is actually the only driver in the series with multiple wins at the track during the stretch, and in the last two March events at Bristol, he has a win and a third-place finish.
While he has struggled at Bristol a bit the past couple of seasons while driving for various smaller teams, Kurt Busch could make some noise this weekend now that he is with Stewart-Haas Racing. After all, he has amassed five wins at the track over the course of his career, tying him for the most victories at the track among active drivers.
He doesn’t have a long history of success at Bristol, but Kasey Kahne has been dialed in at the track lately. He is actually the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and he finished second in his other start at Bristol in 2013. Meanwhile, Kahne has finished 11th or better in six of his last seven starts at the track, compiling a 4.0 average finish in the last three races.
Sleeper Special
After failing to log a single top-10 in his first 14 starts at Bristol, Brian Vickers has been on a tear at the track lately. He has a 5.3 average finish in his last four starts at the track, tallying top-10 finishes in all four starts, including three top-five finishes. Vickers sudden success at Bristol can be directly tied to joining Michael Waltrip Racing at the start of the 2012 season, and he will be driving for MWR again this weekend.
Big Name to Avoid
Former Bristol winner Tony Stewart has really struggled at the track recently. He has finished outside the top 10 in six straight starts at the track. Worse yet, he has four finishes outside the top 25 during the stretch to go along with a dismal 24.3 average finish.
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