2014 Food City 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The first short track race of the 2014 Cup season will take place Sunday at Bristol Motor Speedway, and a trip to Thunder Valley could produce the first upset winner of the season. After all, the half-mile oval has been known for exciting finishes over the years thanks in large part to the bumping and banging that goes on at the track. With laps clicking off about every 15 seconds, track position also plays an important role at Bristol, which opens the door for crew chiefs to gamble on pit strategy to get their drives out front. Between the rough racing and various pit strategies that unfold, Bristol could be a good opportunity for bettors to cash in on a sleeper pick. With that in mind, here are a few underdogs to consider betting on in Sunday’s Food City 500.
He isn’t getting the longest odds in the field, but Kurt Busch is still a little undervalued at his 20/1 odds. His recent struggles at Bristol have no doubt contributed to his current odds, but most of those starts came while he was driving for smaller teams. Busch is back with a powerhouse team in 2014, and with better equipment and resources at his disposal, he could regain the form that saw him win five times at Bristol earlier in his career.
His overall record at Bristol isn’t great, but Brian Vickers has been a new man at the short track since joining Michael Waltrip Racing in 2012. In four starts at the track with MWR, he has three top-five finishes and hasn’t finished worse than eighth. During the stretch, he is one of just two drivers to finish in the top 10 in all four races, and he is the only driver to have three top-five finishes. Throw in the fact that he ranks seventh in laps led, and he makes a great betting option at his current 33/1 odds.
Rookie Kyle Larson has never made a Cup start at Bristol, and as a result, he is a 66/1 longshot to win this weekend. While experience is not on his side, gambling on Larson’s potential could end up paying off in a big way for bettors. After all, this is the same guy that came within a few feet of winning his Nationwide Series debut at Bristol last year. In fact, he finished in the top five in both of his Nationwide starts at the track in 2013. Larson clearly has a good feel for the short track, and an upset isn’t out of the question for the talented youngster.
While his 17.1 average finish at Bristol doesn’t seem all that spectacular, Paul Menard has been trending in the right direction at the track recently. In his last six starts at the track, he has five top-10 finishes, including four straight. In fact, Menard is one of just two drivers with four straight top-10 finishes at Bristol heading into Sunday’s race. After finishing ninth at the track in the March event and sixth in the summer race last year, Menard seems to keep getting better. He could end up being a steal at his current 75/1 odds.
Bettors looking for the serious longshot with a legit chance of stealing a win this weekend should consider backing Marcos Ambrose. While road racing is definitely his best skill, he has been surprisingly effective at short tracks. Bristol in particular has been kind to him, and in 11 starts at the track, he has compiled a respectable 15.9 average finish. More importantly, Ambrose has five top-10s at the track, including a pair of top-five finishes. As a 100/1 longshot to win this weekend, bettors won’t find a driver getting longer odds that has actually been in contention for a win at Bristol.
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