2014 Duck Commander 500 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Jimmie Johnson the Vegas Favorite: The Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and the 1.5-mile oval is one of the fastest tracks on the schedule. Last year, alone drivers qualified at an average of more than 196 mph in both races at the track. Texas has been a part of the Cup Series schedule for almost two decades, and as a result, multiple racing grooves have developed that allows drivers to race side by side on a routine basis despite the high speeds. Not surprisingly, Texas has produced some memorable late-race battles as well as some spectacular multi-car wrecks. Last spring, Kyle Busch survived the speeds and the competition to score his first win at Texas, and here is a closer look at the drivers worth betting on in Sunday’s Duck Commander 500.
The Favorites
He owns the second-best average finish of any driver at Texas, and in 21 starts at the track, Jimmie Johnson has 16 top-10s, including three wins and five second-place finishes. More importantly, Johnson has been at his best at the track the past couple of years. He has a 2.5 average finish in his last four starts at Texas, winning two of the last three races. During the stretch, his 579 laps led are more than twice as many as any other driver.
You won’t find a more consistent driver at Texas than Matt Kenseth. His 8.3 average finish at the track is the best in the series, and he also leads all drivers in driver rating, average running position and average green flag speed. Kenseth is a two-time at Texas for his career, and in his last seven starts at the track, he has six top-five finishes to go along with a 4.6 average finish.
He has been on one heck of a roll at Texas, and Greg Biffle enters Sunday’s race riding a streak of 11 straight top-12 finishes at the track. During the stretch, he has seven top-five finishes, including his second win at the track. Meanwhile, Biffle has led more laps than any other driver at the track since the start of the 2005 season.
The Dark Horses
Although he has been a little up and down at Texas, there is no doubt that Carl Edwards knows how to seal the deal at the track. After all, he is a three-time winner at the 1.5-mile oval, and he has six top-three finishes overall. In fact, Edwards has finished third or better in three of his last six starts at Texas, including a third-place run last spring.
He hasn’t been the most consistent driver at Texas, but Tony Stewart has delivered some strong performances at the track over the years. He has a pair of victories at the track with his most-recent win coming in the fall of 2011. Stewart has also led the second-most laps at Texas since the start of the 2005 season, including an incredible 278 in his 2006 victory.
Sleeper Special
He has gotten off to a slow start in 2014, but Texas has always brought out the best in Martin Truex Jr. In 16 starts at the track, he has 13 top-15 finishes, including five straight. More importantly, Truex has eight top-10 finishes at the track, including a career-best second-place run last spring when he also led the most laps.
Big Name to Avoid
Veteran Jeff Gordon has had his share of strong runs at Texas, but he has been struggling at the track the past couple of years. He has finished outside the top 20 in five of his last eight starts at the 1.5-mile oval, and during the stretch, he has four finishes outside the top 30, including a pair of 38th-place run last year.
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