2014 Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2014 Crown Royal Presents the John Wayne Walding 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: Upsets at Indianapolis haven’t been all that common over the years. After all, 15 of the 20 winners at the track are also series champions, and Tony Stewart, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have combined to win half the races at the track. However, the stranglehold that champions have had at Indianapolis has faded in recent years with three of the last four races being won by drivers that haven’t won a championship. The recent trend gives hope of a possible upset this weekend, and with that in mind, here is a closer look at some sleeper drivers that could be worth betting on Sunday.

He is somewhat of an unknown this weekend since he will be making just his second Cup start of the year, but Juan Pablo Montoya is still worth a look at his current 22/1 odds. After all, he finished second in his first-ever start at Indianapolis, and he finished ninth last year. In between, he dominated the 2009 race only to see a speeding penalty cost him the win, and questionable pit strategy on the part of his crew chief cost him a shot at the win a year later. Still, Montoya has managed to lead the second-most laps of any driver since 2005 despite only running seven of the nine races during the stretch. He will behind the wheel of excellent equipment this weekend as he drives a third Team Penske entry, and he is definitely worth taking advantage of.

He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and Ryan Newman’s victory was anything but luck. He started on the pole, led the second-most laps and eventually held off Jimmie Johnson for the win. Meanwhile, he has been rock solid at Indianapolis recently, compiling a 10.7 average finish over his past six races and finishing seventh and first in his last two starts. Newman could be an absolute steal this weekend at his 28/1 odds.

Although he only has seven Cup wins in his career, Jamie McMurray has had a knack for doing his best work at the big race. He won at Indianapolis in 2010, and he has also won the Daytona 500 and the All-Star Race in his career. Not to mention the fact that McMurray has been solid in general at Indy, finishing in the top 15 in six of his 11 starts, including three times in his last four starts. Overall, McMurray has five finishes of seventh or better at the Brickyard, and he has already shown he can seal the deal at the track and on NASCAR’s biggest stages. At his current 33/1 odds, he offers great value.

While he isn’t having the best season, Greg Biffle has been dialed at Indianapolis in recent years. He has finished in the top 15 in six of his last seven starts at Indy, and he has finished eighth or better five times during the stretch. Perhaps more importantly, he has finished fourth or better three times in his last five starts at the Brickyard. Biffle has been a serious contender at Indianapolis on numerous occasions, which makes him a solid upside bet at his current 40/1 odds.

Although it is definitely true that Paul Menard stole his win at Indianapolis in 2011 by using fuel mileage strategy and coasting his way to the finish, his overall record has also been solid. He has finished in the top 15 in his last four starts at the track, including finishes of 14th and 12th in his last two starts. Yes, he couldn’t have won at Indy in 2011 without using pit strategy, but Menard does deserve credit for consistently being close enough to the front to be able to take advantage of fuel mileage strategy. He will likely need similar savvy strategy this weekend to win, but he will likely be in position to do just that. He is worth a flier at his current 50/1 odds.

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