2014 Coca-Cola 600 Expert Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The Cup Series heads to Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend, and while the 1.5-mile track has been producing record speeds lately, speed alone won’t win Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600. After all, the race is the longest of the season, and winning is as much about consistency and endurance on the part of both the drivers and the cars as it is about horsepower. Not surprisingly, a lot can happen over the course of 600 miles, and the drivers left standing aren’t always the big names. In fact, Casey Mears and David Reutimann are just two of the underdogs that have won the Coca-Cola 600 in recent years. With that in mind, here is a closer look at some drivers getting longer odds that could pull off the upset this weekend.
Although he is only getting 28/1 odds to win this weekend, Kurt Busch’s longer odds have a lot more to do with his availability for Sunday’s Coca-Cola 600 rather than his ability behind the wheel. You see, Busch will be racing in the Indianapolis 500 earlier the same day so there is a chance he won’t be able to make it to Charlotte on time for the Sprint Cup race. However, he should be a serious threat for the win if he does make it. After all, Busch has finished fourth or better in three of his last four starts in the Coca-Cola 600, winning the race in 2010. Yes, taking Busch is a calculated risk, but this is one of the few times you have a chance to get 28/1 odds for one of NASCAR’s most talented drivers.
Since he has only been in the field for four of the last nine races at Charlotte and has had minimal success in the few starts he has made at the track, it isn’t a huge surprise to see that Brian Vickers is a 33/1 longshot to win Sunday. However, he is in a much different situation this year than he has been in recent seasons, and he enters the Coca-Cola 600 with a full-time, stable ride with Michael Waltrip Racing. More importantly, he has been strong at the 1.5-mile tracks for MWR so far in 2014, averaging a top-10 finish. Vickers also had one of the best long-run cars during last weekend’s All-Star Race at Charlotte, and while his setup didn’t really work for the 100-lap shootout, it could be perfect for the 600-mile marathon on tap Sunday. He could be worth a look.
He has always been wildly inconsistent so in some ways, I understand why Jamie McMurray is a 40/1 longshot to win this weekend at Charlotte. However, he is a two-time winner at the track in the fall event, and he finished second in the 2010 Coca-Cola 600. Perhaps more importantly, McMurray won the All-Star Race at Charlotte last weekend. Granted, track conditions won’t be identical this weekend, but it is a pretty safe bet that McMurray’s race-winning setup from last weekend will put him in pretty good shape this weekend. Throw in his other wins at Charlotte, and he could be a steal at his current odds.
With just one win in his Cup career, Paul Menard is the definition of an underdog. However, he is an underdog I don’t mind taking a chance on this weekend at his current 66/1 odds to win. For one, he has finished in the top 15 three times in three of his last four starts in the Coca-Cola 600, logging an eighth-place finish in 2010. Meanwhile, he has been excellent at 1.5-mile tracks in 2014, notching a pair of top-10 finishes in three starts to go along with a 9.7 average finish. Menard should definitely be within striking distance of the front this weekend, giving him a chance to pull off an upset.
While he hasn’t made much noise in 2014, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. could be worth a flier at his current 100/1 odds. After all, Charlotte has been arguably his strongest track in his brief Cup Series career. In four starts at the track, he has three top-15 finishes, including finishes of 11th and 14th in two starts in the Coca-Cola 600. Stenhouse should at least be near the top 10 late in Sunday’s race, giving him a chance to use pit strategy or fuel mileage to sneak out a win.
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