2014 Bank of America 500 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series heads back to Charlotte Motor Speedway this weekend, and the 1.5-mile oval known for its slick, loose surface and high speeds could be in store for one of its most exciting races this Saturday night. The new elimination-based playoff format suddenly has many big names in jeopardy of missing out on the title after Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Kevin Harvick all had tire issues last weekend, putting even more of an emphasis on these drivers to reach victory lane and secure an automatic spot in the next round of the Chase. With that in mind, an intense atmosphere and intense action are probably inevitable, and here is closer look at the drivers with that best chance of emerging from Charlotte with a victory.
The Favorites
He is gunning for a season sweep at Charlotte this weekend, and Jimmie Johnson not only one the Coca-Cola 600 at the track in May, but he led a race-high 164 laps in the process. He also led 130 laps and finished fourth at Charlotte last fall, and he has finished fourth or better in three of his last four starts at the track. For his career, Johnson is a seven-time winner at Charlotte, and no active driver has more wins at the track.
Over the past eight races at Charlotte, Kevin Harvick is the only driver with multiple wins at the track. During the stretch, he leads all drivers with a 6.0 average finish, and he has finished in the top 10 seven times. Harvick has actually been even better recently, logging a 3.0 average finish in his last three starts and leading 100 laps and finishing second at the track earlier this season.
While he doesn’t have a win at Charlotte, Joey Logano does lead all active drivers with a 10.5 average finish at the track, and in 11 starts, he has nine top-15 finishes. More importantly, Logano has been the hottest driver in the series in recent weeks, posting a 2.5 average finish in four races since the Chase began. He is also tied for the series lead with five victories in 2014 after his win at Kansas last weekend.
Kasey Kahne has always had a great feel for Charlotte, and his four wins at the 1.5-mile oval are his most at any track. Over the past 20 races at Charlotte, his 11.5 average finish ranks third in the series, and he has been even better recently. Kahne owns a series-leading 6.5 average finish in his last six starts at Charlotte, and he has led a series-high 395 laps during the stretch while picking up a win a two-second place finishes.
The Dark Horses
Although he has never won at Charlotte, Kyle Busch sure has come close on numerous occasions. He has finished eighth or better in 12 of his last 14 starts at the track, and during the stretch, he has nine top-five finishes. Meanwhile, no driver has more top-five finishes or has led more laps in the last 10 races at Charlotte than Busch has. He is long overdue for a win.
He remains winless in 2014, but Matt Kenseth always seems to be a factor when the series visits Charlotte. After all, he has reeled off 11 straight top-15 finishes at the track, notching eight top-10 finishes over the same span. Kenseth is also a two-time winner at Charlotte for his career, and he has finished third in each of his last two starts at the track.
The Sleepers
It has been an up-and-down year for Jamie McMurray, but don’t be surprised if he makes some noise this weekend at Charlotte. After all, he finished fifth at the track in May, and he also won the All-Star Race at Charlotte earlier this year. By the way, McMurray is also a two-time winner at Charlotte for his career, and both of his victories have come in the fall event.
Big Name to Avoid
He has enjoyed one of his best seasons in recent memory, but Charlotte has never been kind to Dale Earnhardt Jr. He has been particularly brutal at the track since joining Hendrick Motorsports in 2008. In 11 starts at Charlotte with the organization, he owns 24.5 average finish. In those starts, he has managed just two Top-10s and zero top-five finishes compared to five finishes outside the top 25.
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