2014 Auto Club 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The Cup Series heads to Auto Club Speedway this weekend, and while big names like Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have enjoyed a ton of success at the track, there have also been some surprise winners over the years. The track’s 2.0-mile layout lends itself to long green flag runs, which often brings fuel mileage into play. As a result, drivers occasionally get the chance to use pit strategy to trump cars that might otherwise be faster. Not to mention the fact that there are some solid drivers that run well at the track. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few underdogs that could be worth taking a chance on this weekend.
While he isn’t the biggest dark horse of the weekend, Greg Biffle is being disrespected at his current 25/1 odds. After all, he has been the king of the 2.0-mile tracks the past couple of seasons. He has finished in the top 10 in all six races at 2.0-mile ovals since the start of 2012, and his 4.5 average finish during the stretch is the best in the series. More importantly, his two wins during the stretch are the most of any driver. Biffle is a former winner at Auto Club Speedway, and he has finished sixth in back-to-back races at the track. He is a bargain at his current odds.
Although he hasn’t made a start at Auto Club Speedway in the Cup Series since 2011, bettors shouldn’t overlook Brian Vickers this weekend. In his last at start at the 2.0-mile oval, he has seven top-12 finishes so the layoff shouldn’t hurt him too much at a track that has always been one of his best. Meanwhile, he is a former winner at Michigan, which has a very similar layout to Auto Club Speedway. The 33/1 longshot could return with a bang.
Since he has never made a Cup start at Auto Club Speedway, it is easy to understand why Austin Dillon is a 75/1 longshot to win Sunday. However, Dillon has enjoyed nothing but success at 2.0-mile ovals in his Nationwide starts at Auto Club Speedway, logging a pair of top-five finishes. More impressively, he finished in the top 15 in two Cup starts at Michigan last year while driving for two different teams. Considering ACS has a similar layout to Michigan, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him be very competitive this weekend and have a shot and springing the upset.
If you believe in momentum, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is your man this weekend. He is getting 75/1 odds to win Sunday, and those odds are appropriate for a driver that finished 20th in his only Cup start at Auto Club Speedway to date. That being said, Stenhouse has improved dramatically since last year’s trip to Fontana, and he is coming off a career-best second-place finish last weekend at Bristol. Meanwhile, he is driving for a Roush Fenway Racing organization that has won more races at the track than any other team. In fact, RFR drivers have won seven of the 21 races at the track. It could all come together this weekend for Stenhouse.
Bettors looking to really take a swing this weekend should consider A.J. Allmendinger. He is a 300/1 longshot to win this weekend, and he has never finished in the top 10 at the track. However, he has finished in the top 20 in six of his last eight starts at Auto Club Speedway, including four straight. Allmendinger won’t win this Sunday’s race on speed, but his ability to stay within striking distance gives him a chance to use some strategy to try to steal the win. If the race comes down to fuel mileage, Allmendinger could cash in. Bettors may want to try to do the same.
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