2014 Aaron’s 499 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid

2014 Aaron’s 499 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, and the massive 2.66-mile tri-oval is the largest track on the schedule. It is also one of just two tracks that use restrictor plates to curb speeds, and as a result, drivers will spend much of the race running bunched together in a large pack. This pack racing tends to lead to multi-car wrecks, and while it can be frustrating to watch a large number of drivers eliminated before the finish, the attrition tends to open the door for surprise winners. At the end of the day, any driver that can survive the wrecks and be around on the final has a shot at winning, and for many smaller teams, this is one of the few races that they have a legitimate shot at pulling off an upset.

The Favorites

He is a five-time winner at Talladega for his career, and no driver has been better at plate tracks the past couple of years than Dale Earnhardt Jr. His 8.4 average finish at the plate tracks since 2012 is by far the best in the series, and his four top-five finishes in nine races during the stretch are tied for the most in the series. One of those top-five finishes came at Talladega last fall when he finished second, and no driver has been a safer bet to be in contention at plate tracks lately than Junior.

Since joining the Cup Series, no driver has been better at Talladega than Brad Keselowski. He has seven top-10 finishes in 10 starts, and his 14.2 average finish is tied for the best in the series. More importantly, he is a two-time winner at the track, winning in his first-ever start in 2009 and again in 2012. Keselowksi is one of only three drivers to have multiple wins at Talladega during the stretch.

When it comes to running up front at plate tracks, Matt Kenseth has been in a class by himself lately. Since 2012, Kenseth has led a series-high 506 laps at plate tracks while no other driver has led more than 205. More importantly, Kenseth has led a series-best 270 laps at Talladega during the stretch, picking up three finishes of eighth or better in four starts, including a win in the fall of 2012.

The Dark Horses

He is very hit and miss at Talladega, but there is no denying that Jamie McMurray knows how to seal the deal at the track. He is a two-time winner at Talladega with his most-recent victory coming just last fall. Meanwhile, McMurray is a four-time winner at plate tracks overall, and while he isn’t the most-consistent plate track performer, he is one of the best in the business when it comes to getting to victory lane.

Former Talladega winner Kyle Busch has been knocking on the door of another win at the track recently. He has piled up three top-five finishes in the last four races, including a pair of top-three finishes. More importantly, Busch’s three top-five finishes during the stretch are the most in the series so he is hot as any driver at NASCAR’s largest track.

Sleeper Special

Most weeks, David Ragan is lucky if he can even crack the top 30, let alone contend for a win. However, Talladega is a completely different story. Not only is Ragan the defending winner of this weekend’s race, but he has finished seventh or better in four straight starts at the track. During the stretch, he has compiled a series-leading 4.5 average finish. For whatever reason, the normally irrelevant Ragan is a major threat to win at Talladega.

Big Name to Avoid

Since winning his first Cup race at Talladega in the fall of 2008, Tony Stewart hasn’t even come close to returning to victory lane. He has just one top-10 finish and not a single top-five in his last nine starts at the track. During the same stretch, Stewart has finished outside the top 15 eight times and has finished outside the top 20 in his last three starts at the track.

Check the latest NASCAR Vegas Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: