2014 Aaron’s 312 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid

2014 Aaron’s 312 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Favorites, Sleepers and Drivers to Avoid: The Nationwide Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, and while the Cup Series will also be visiting the massive track, the field won’t be overly crowded with big names. In fact, only two Cup regulars are slated to be in the field, and neither of them are former winners at Talladega. With that in mind, Saturday’s Aaron’s 312 is a golden opportunity for one of the series regulars to break through and get to victory lane just as Regan Smith did at Talladega last spring when he survived a wild final lap to pick up the win.

The Favorites

While his record at Talladega in the Nationwide Series has been inconsistent, Kasey Kahne will have a huge edge in experience on the rest of the field. Kahne and Kyle Larson will be the only Cup regulars in the field this weekend, and Larson is a rookie at the Cup level while Kahne is a seasoned veteran. Meanwhile, Kahne did finish third at Talladega last year in a field full of big names, and this weekend, he will be the biggest name and most accomplished driver in the field.

Since teaming up with JR Motorsports last year, Regan Smith has become quite the star at restrictor plate events. Not only is he the defending winner of this weekend’s race at Talladega, but he also won this year’s season opener at Daytona. With two wins in the last three Nationwide plate track events and a series-best 6.0 average finish at plate tracks since last year, Smith is definitely on the short list of drivers to beat this weekend.

The Dark Horses

Although he has yet to win a plate race, Elliott Sadler has been one of the most-consistent performers at the plate tracks since returning to the Nationwide Series a few years ago. His 8.5 average finish in plate events since last year ranks second in the series, and his 8.7 average finish at Talladega is the best of any driver in the field this weekend. In three starts at the track, Sadler has never finished worse than 11th so he should definitely be within striking distance of a win this weekend.

He will be making his Talladega debut this weekend, but a lack of experience hasn’t exactly been holding rookie Chase Elliott back this season. After all, he enters Saturday’s race as the point leader, and in his last three starts, he has two wins and a second-place finish. In fact, Elliott hasn’t finished outside the top 15 all year, and he is currently riding a streak of seven straight top-10s. No one in the series is hotter than Elliott, making him a threat this weekend.

Although his first start at Talladega didn’t go well, Kyle Larson has been solid at plate tracks in general. He has three top-15s in four plate events, including back-to-back top-10s. Considering Larson is already having a lot of success at the Cup level as a rookie, it is fair to say he is a fast learner. Throw in the fact that he is one of just two Cup regulars in the field this weekend, and he should have a shot at the win.

Sleeper Special

While he won’t be in great equipment this weekend, David Ragan is still capable of pulling off an upset this weekend. After all, he is a former winner at Talladega at both the Cup and the Nationwide level, and in three Nationwide starts at the track, he has two top-four finishes. Ragan’s overall career has been rather mediocre, but he has been able to make an impact at the plate tracks, and that could continue this weekend.

Big Name to Avoid

Nationwide Series juggernaut Kyle Busch will be taking the week off, and Sam Hornish Jr. will be getting behind the wheel of the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 54. While Hornish nearly won the Nationwide title a year ago, he has never had much success at Talladega. In fact, he has never cracked the top 10 in three starts. Hornish will have a great car at his disposal this weekend, but his history at Talladega doesn’t bode well for his chances of making much noise.

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