2013 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Vegas Favorites and Sleepers: The Cup Series head to Sonoma Raceway this weekend for the first road course even of 2013. Unlike a traditional oval, the 1.99-mile track features both left and right-hand turns to go along with multiple elevations changes and winding combinations of turns throughout the course. Not surprisingly, the unique track layout requires drivers to master a unique set of skills, and some handle the road courses better than others. In addition, drivers often referred to as road course ringers show up from other road racing series throughout the world to try to take down the big names of NASCAR.
Last year, Clint Bowyer came out of nowhere to score his first career road course victory, and it came in dominant fashion. With the perfect combination of speed and strategy, Bowyer led 71 of the 112 laps and held of Tony Stewart in the closing laps to notch the win.
2013 Toyota/Save Mart 350 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions
The Favorites
Since joining the Cup Series in 2008, no driver has been better at the road courses than Marcos Ambrose. In 10 road course starts, he has two wins and seven top-five finishes. He also has nine straight top-10s and has posted a 3.6 average finish during the stretch. At Sonoma in particular, he has finished eighth or better in his last four starts, and he would have won the 2010 race had he not stalled his car under caution while leading with a few laps to go. Ambrose has since sealed the deal twice at Watkins Glen, and he is long overdue to do the same at Sonoma.
As one of the most-versatile racers alive, it is no surprise Tony Stewart excels at road racing. His seven road course wins are the second most all-time, and he has a 9.4 average finish in 28 career starts. Two of those seven wins have come at Sonoma, and 10.9 average finish at the track is the third best in the series. Stewart also has three runner-up efforts at the track, including two in the last four years. Whenever the series heads to a road course, Stewart is usually a threat to win.
If he retired today, Jeff Gordon would go down in history as the best road racer NASCAR has seen. His nine overall wins are the most all-time, and his five Sonoma victories are also a record. More importantly, Gordon has remained a stud at the track in recent years, reeling off seven-straight top-10 finishes. He has also finished sixth or better in his last three starts, including a second-place run in 2011. Gordon’s championship years may be behind him, but he isn’t done winning road courses just yet.
The Dark Horses
While his overall road racing numbers don’t put him among the series elite, Clint Bowyer has been a stud at Sonoma. He is the defending winner of this weekend’s race, and his 9.7 average finish at the track is the second bets in the series. More importantly, Bowyer has five top-10s in his last six starts at Sonoma, and he finished fourth or better four times during the stretch.
While his luck hasn’t always been the greatest, Kyle Busch has always shown plenty of muscle at the road courses. For one, he has won at both Sonoma and Watkins Glen in his career, and even though his finishes haven’t been great the last two years, he has led more laps than any other driver at road courses since 2011. Busch can be boom or bust for sure, but he is also a proven road course winner.
The last two years at Sonoma have been kind to Kurt Busch. He went to victory lane at the track in 2011 with Penske Racing, and he finished last year while driving for Phoenix Racing. The fact that he was able to post two top-three finishes at the track despite switching teams speaks volumes to his road racing skills. Busch will be driving for yet another team this weekend, but he should be just as dangerous with Furniture Row Racing.
Sleeper Special
Although he will be making just his fourth Cup Series start this weekend, Jacques Villeneuve could be an excellent sleeper bet. For one, the former CART and Formula One champ is no stranger to running at road course races and running well. More importantly, Villeneuve has exceled at road courses in the Nationwide Series recently, posting six top-10s in nine starts along with four top-five finishes. He will be driving for a No. 51 team that finished third at Sonoma with Kurt Busch last year so Villeneuve should have the equipment he needs to let his talent show.
Of all the road course ringers, Ron Fellows is the most accomplished. In addition to his five top-10 finishes at the Cup level, he has won four Nationwide Series road course events. Fellow is one of smoothest drivers in any series when it comes to hitting his marks and conserving brakes, and with Richard Childress Racing supplying the equipment for his Circle Sport team, he could surprise.
Big Name to Avoid
Since joining the Cup Series together in 2000, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Matt Kenseth have accomplished a lot. However, running well at road courses isn’t on the list of either driver’s resumes. In 26 combined starts, they two have managed just one top-10 finish, and the average finish of both drivers is outside the top 20.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Toyota Save Mart 350 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Toyota Save Mart 350 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the Nascar Toyota Save Mart 350
101 Marcos Ambrose +600
102 Tony Stewart +800
103 Juan Montoya +900
104 Kyle Busch +900
105 Jeff Gordon +900
106 Jimmie Johnson +900
107 Kurt Busch +1100
108 Kevin Harvick +1100
109 Clint Bowyer +1100
110 Brad Keselowski +1600
111 Carl Edwards +2500
112 Kasey Kahne +2500
113 Brian Vickers +3500
114 Martin Truex Jr +3500
115 Ron Fellows +4000
116 Jacques Villeneuve +4000
117 Greg Biffle +4000
118 Dale Earnhardt Jr +6000
119 Danica Patrick +6000
120 Paul Menard +6000
121 Joey Logano +3000
122 Jamie McMurray +4000
123 Denny Hamlin +4000
124 Matt Kenseth +4000
125 Ryan Newman +7500
126 Ricky Stenhouse +7500
127 Field +2000
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