2013 Subway Fresh Fit 500 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs at Phoenix International Raceway in Avondale, Arizona: Phoenix International Raceway is one of the more unique tracks on the schedule, and even with a recent repaving project that widened the racing groove, passing is still difficult at the flat, one-mile oval. As a result, the driver with the fastest car is far from a lock to win the race. In fact, it is usually the driver with the best strategy that gets to Victory Lane, which opens the door for drivers that can’t always compete on bigger, faster tracks to steal a victory as long as they can find a way to get track position in the closing stages of the race. With so many outside factors going into to deciding the outcome of a race at PIR, it shouldn’t come as a big surprise that the last seven races have all been won by different drivers. A few of the drivers to take the checkered flag during the stretch have definitely been eye openers, and here are a few potential candidates that could add to the list if surprise winners Sunday.
I know he hasn’t won a race since 2009, but Mark Martin is still criminally underrated at his current 20/1 odds. After all, his success at Phoenix has stood the test of time. He has a 9.1 average finish at the track in 32 career starts, and he has been even better recently, posting an 8.4 average finish in the last 10 races at PIR. More importantly, he has four top-five finishes during the stretch, including a victory in 2009. Martin has two wins at Phoenix overall, and after notching a pair of top-10s in 2012, he has shown no signs of slowing down. Martin is pretty much a lock to be somewhere near the front of the field Sunday, and giving bettors a realistic shot at a solid payout.
Aside from an eight-win campaign in 2003, Ryan Newman has never been the type of driver to pile up victories. In fact, he has never won more than one race in a season since 2004, and he has gone winless four times during the stretch. That being said, Newman has been way to strong at Phoenix lately to overlook at his current 28/1 odds. In his last six starts at the track, he has compiled five top-five finishes, and he won at PIR in 2010. No driver has more top-five finishes than Newman during the stretch, and his 6.5 average finish is also the best in the series during the six races. In other words, no driver has been at Phoenix since the start of the 2010 season than Newman. It’s not often you can grab the hottest driver at a track at 28/1 odds, and bettors should strongly consider taking advantage of the opportunity.
He has a horrible year in 2012, but while Kurt Busch still isn’t back with a powerhouse organization, he is in a much better position to succeed this season with Furniture Row Racing than he was with Phoenix Racing last year. More importantly, he is a former winner at Phoenix and has finished in the top 15 in seven of his last nine starts at the track. Busch is a 50/1 longshot to win Sunday, but those long odds are more a reflection of the small team he drives for than his previous results at Phoenix. However, Busch managed an eighth-place finish at PIR last fall while driving for the same Furniture Row team he will be driving for this weekend. There is no reason he can’t be just as competitive Sunday, and given his past success at the track, Busch has a chance at making some noise. At 50/1 odds, it doesn’t take a big bet to produce a big payoff.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Subway Fresh Fit 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Subway Fresh Fit 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 Subway Fresh Fit 500
101 Jimmie Johnson +550
102 Denny Hamlin +800
103 Kyle Busch +800
104 Brad Keselowski +900
105 Matt Kenseth +1000
106 Tony Stewart +1200
107 Kasey Kahne +1200
108 Jeff Gordon +1200
109 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
110 Kevin Harvick +1500
111 Greg Biffle +1500
112 Clint Bowyer +1500
113 Carl Edwards +1500
114 Mark Martin +1800
115 Martin Truex Jr +1800
116 Joey Logano +3000
117 Ryan Newman +3000
118 Field +1200
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