2013 STP Gas Booster 500 Free Pick – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: While Martinsville Speedway has been dominated by a handful of drivers for the past two decades, every so often, a surprise winner sneaks through. Bobby Hamilton, Ricky Craven, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman in this race one year ago are among the underdogs to break through. Not to mention the fact that the chances of a surprise winner getting the job done this weekend improved a bit after it was announced that Denny Hamlin would have to sit out this weekend’s race and beyond after suffering a back injury in a wreck at Auto Club Speedway two weeks ago. Hamlin has won four of the last 10 races at Martinsville, and no driver has more wins at the track since the start of the 2009 season. With one of the big guns out, the door just opened a little but wider for everyone else.
His slow start to the 2013 season brought back memories of his 2012 nightmare, but Kurt Busch has righted the ship and is starting to look like the driver that closed last season with four straight top-15 finishes. He rolls into Martinsville on the heels of back-to-back top-five finishes, and when he the series visited the track last fall, Busch delivered a 15th-place finish that jumpstarted his impressive finish to his 2012 campaign. He looks even more comfortable with his Furniture Row Racing team this time around, and he has been closer to winning races the past two weeks than he has been in more than a year. Throw in the fact that he is a former winner at Martinsville, and Busch could end up being a steal at his current 33/1 odds.
He won’t be subbing for the injured Denny Hamlin until next weekend, but Brian Vickers will still be in the field this weekend at Martinsville as the driver of the Michael Waltrip Racing No. 55. Driving the same car last season, he posted three top-10s in four short track starts, including an eighth-place finish at Martinsville in the fall. More importantly, Vickers has picked up where he left off in 2013, finishing in the top 10 at Bristol in his first start of the year. He has actually finished 11h or better in four of his last eight starts at Martinsville, and considering he has been particularly strong at short tracks in his spot starts with MWR over the past year, Vickers is definitely worth taking a chance on at his current 33/1 odds.
Sometimes a driver’s overall stats can vary drastically compared to their stats at one or two particular tracks, and that is exactly the case with Aric Almirola at Martinsville. Since his career numbers include a dismal 26.6 average and just two top-five finishes and six top-10s in 76 career Cup Starts, it is easy to understand why he is a 75/1 longshot to win Sunday. However, it is worth noting that one of his two top-five finishes and two of his six top-10s came at Martinsville last year when Almirola finished eighth in the spring and fourth in the fall. One strong finish could have been written off as a fluke, but two strong efforts suggest that he simply has a great feel for the track. Keep in mind that Almriola only has one full year of Cup Series experience under his belt so he still has room to improve. We are talking about one of only three drivers that cracked the top 10 in both races at Martinsville last year, and at his current odds, the upside is almost too good to pass up.
Last but not least, bettors looking for a serious longshot may want to roll the dice with Casey Mears. As a driver for the single-car Germain Racing team, he has been an afterthought on the track the past few years, finishing 36th, 31st and 29th in the standings the last three years. However, something special is going on with Mears and his team so far in 2013, and he has collected three top-15s in five races. For comparison’s sake, he had a single top-15 finish in 36 starts last year. Mears is clearly running better than he ever has since joining Germain Racing, and at flat oval like Martinsville where track position is everything, the right pit strategy could turn another solid outing into a huge upset. With his 250/1 odds to win, a small bet could yield a major payoff if Mears puts an exclamation point on his strong start this weekend.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 STP Gas Booster 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 STP Gas Booster 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 STP Gas Booster 500
101 Jimmie Johnson +250
102 Brad Keselowski +900
103 Kyle Busch +700
104 Jeff Gordon +600
105 Tony Stewart +3000
106 Clint Bowyer +900
107 Kasey Kahne +1200
108 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
109 Matt Kenseth +1800
110 Kevin Harvick +1500
111 Carl Edwards +1500
112 Mark Martin +4000
113 Greg Biffle +3000
114 Ryan Newman +3000
115 Joey Logano +2000
116 Martin Truex Jr +2500
117 Brian Vickers +2000
118 Field +1800
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