2013 STP 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs

2013 STP 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs : The Cup Series heads to Kansas Speedway this weekend for the STP 400, and while the track has only been a part of the schedule since 2001, it has already played host to several unexpected moments. Joe Nemechek for example has only four wins in 625 races, and one of them came at Kansas. Meanwhile, the 2005 race came down to a battle between veterans Mark Martin and Ricky Rudd, nearly a decade after both drivers were in their prime. Perhaps the strangest finish came in 2007 when Greg Biffle became the sudden winner when a rain-delayed race was called under caution because of darkness. Needless to say, Kansas has been full of surprise, and if the trend continues, it could be good news for bettors willing to gamble on some longshots. With that in mind, here is a closer look at some of the drivers that could be capable of delivering a surprise victory.

With a quick look at Joey Logano’s record at Kansas, it’s not hard to understand why is a 28/1 longshot to win Sunday’s STP 400. In seven starts at the track, he has compiled a 24.3 average finish, and he has never finished in the top 10. In fact, he has finished outside the top 15 in six of his starts. Despite the poor numbers, there is reason for bettors to be optimistic at Logano’s chances this weekend because he has been at his best all year at larger ovals like Kansas. He has finished 12th at Las Vegas, third at Auto Club and fifth at Texas just last weekend. It is no coincidence that his sudden success at these types of tracks has coincided with his offseason move to Penske Racing. The change of scenery has helped the young driver, and don’t forget that Logano is still the same driver that had enough raw talent to break into the Cup Series as a teenager. He may finally be realizing his potential, and if Logano is set to elevate his driving to the next level, bettors need to cash in on the ground floor.

Considering he has never won a Cup Series race and has never finished inside the top 20 at Kansas, it makes sense that Aric Almirola is only getting 40/1 odds to win at the track Sunday. However, his 29th-place finish at Kansas last fall is a little misleading. Almirola had one of the two best cars on the track in the race, leading over 60 laps and even recovering from a poor pit stop to get back to the front. He eventually wrecked while battling inside the top five, but he showed plenty of muscle before his day ended. Meanwhile, Almirola is coming off a seventh-place finish last weekend at a Texas track that has the same 1.5-mile shape at Kansas does. Keep in mind that 2013 is just his second full season in the Cup Series, and he has done nothing but improve since landing his ride with Richard Petty Motorsports. With a little more experience under his belt, Almirola could turn his strong run from last fall into an upset win Sunday.

While it was no surprise that Paul Menard wasn’t among the favorites to win Sunday at Kansas, it was a little surprising to see that he was only a 66/1 longshot. After all, he has finished in the top 20 in his last five starts at the track, picking up three finishes of 12th or better during the stretch. More importantly, he finished a career-best third at the track last fall, and three of his six top-five finishes since the start of 2010 have come at 1.5-mile tracks. Menard has also been enjoying the best start to a season of his career, and he heads to Kansas ranked ninth in the standings. Yes, Menard strong showings are few and far between, but when he does have them, they tend to be at tracks like Kansas. After such a great run at Kansas last fall and such a big potential payoff, there is a lot to love about Menard this weekend.

Elliott Sadler is a 100/1 longshot to win at Kansas Sunday as he prepares to make his first Cup Series start of 2013, and while he hasn’t made a Cup start at the track since the 2010 season, that doesn’t mean he can’t make some noise. For one, he has finished in the top 12 in four of his last seven starts at the track, including a fourth-place run. Meanwhile, Sadler will also be making his first start at the track with Joe Gibbs Racing. Keep in mind that JGR has produced multiple winners at Kanas, including the defending winner of this weekend’s race. Sadler is a smart, experienced driver, and he will be behind the wheel of arguably the best equipment he has ever driven at the Cup level this weekend. If Sadler ends up making the most of his start with JGR, bettors will want to be a part of it.

Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 STP 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 STP 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!

Odds to win the 2013 STP 400
101 Jimmie Johnson +600
102 Kyle Busch +800
103 Brad Keselowski +800
104 Greg Biffle +800
105 Carl Edwards +1000
106 Matt Kenseth +1000
107 Kasey Kahne +1200
108 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
109 Jeff Gordon +1200
110 Clint Bowyer +1500
111 Martin Truex Jr +1500
112 Kevin Harvick +1500
113 Tony Stewart +2000
114 Brian Vickers +2500
115 Mark Martin +3000
116 Joey Logano +3000
117 Ryan Newman +5000
118 Field +1200

Check the latest NASCAR Odds and Betting Lines from BOVADA below: