2013 Sprint Cup Series Predictions: Why Marcos Ambrose is the Longshot to Bet On

2013 Sprint Cup Series Predictions: Why Marcos Ambrose is the Longshot to Bet On During the years, there have been plenty of drivers that have come out of nowhere to win races. I mean, Paul Menard has won the Brickyard 400, Regan Smith has won the Southern 500 and Derrike Cope, Trevor Bayne and Ward Burton have won the Daytona 500. That being said, there haven’t been many surprises when it comes to the series championship. Even with the advent of the Chase system that resets the points after 26 races, Kurt Busch is the only name that stands out as a somewhat surprise champ. The point is that while just about any driver can win one race, there only a select few that have a realistic shot at the title, and this year is no exception.

2013 Sprint Cup Series Predictions:

Looking at the odds for the 2013 Sprint Cup title, Jimmie Johnson is the favorite while Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kasey Kahne, Matt Kenseth, Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon are all getting 10/1 odds or better to win the championship. The oddsmakers nailed it on this one, and in my mind, the 2013 champion is going to come from these eight drivers. That being said, there is nothing wrong with taking a chance on a longshot, but given how unlikely it is for any driver outside of those eight to actually win the title, there is no reason not to swing for the fences with your bet. After all, where is the upside with picking guys like Greg Biffle with 12/1 odds or Martin Truex Jr. with 15/1 odds when there is such a distinct gap between them and the eight favorites? At that point, you might as well pick one of the favorites because the payoff is about the same.

If you are going to go out on a limb, go way out, and there aren’t many drivers getting longer odds to win the title in 2013 than Marcos Ambrose. He is currently getting 200/1 odds to win the Sprint Cup, and while it would be a near-miracle if he actually won the title, he could actually find himself with a chance thanks to the setup of the Chase system. While Ambrose isn’t going to make the playoffs by being one of the top 10 drivers during the regular season, he could grab one of the two wild card spots that go to the drivers inside the top 20 but outside the top 10 that have the most wins.

After all, he has finished inside the top 20 in points in each of the last two seasons, and he has also won a road course race each year. In fact, Ambrose is the best road course racer in the series, and it is a real possibility that he sweeps both road course events in 2013. Two wins would almost certainly qualify him for a wild card spot and put him in the Chase. From there, the points are reset, and Ambrose would suddenly have a puncher’s chance to make some noise. Unlike the rest of the longshots that are going to have to use fuel strategy and other gambles to try to steal a couple of wins and sneak into the Chase, Ambrose has two tracks in Watkins Glen and Infineon where he will be the favorite. Those two road courses could be his golden ticket to the playoffs.

Granted, he still has to perform well if and when he gets there, but while Ambrose has been horribly inconsistent throughout his career, he does have some talent. During four races last August for example, he scored more points than any other driver in the series. During the four-race stretch, he posted a 6.8 average starting position and a 5.3 average finish. I know four good races isn’t even halfway to the 10 it would take for Ambrose to win the championship, but there is a sliver of potential there that makes him an intriguing bet, especially given the potential payoff. If you are betting NASCAR futures in 2013 and want to throw a few bucks down on a longshot champion, no driver has longer odds with a more realistic shot of at least qualifying for the Chase and competing for the title than Ambrose.

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