2013 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Kyle Busch the Vegas Favorite: The Nationwide Series heads back to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and if the track’s high speeds weren’t already challenging enough, the field is loaded with Cup regulars. In addition to the normal double-duty drivers like Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be returning to the series for the first time since winning the 2012 Nationwide title, and Denny Hamlin will be subbing for an injured Brian Vickers.
The field was equally loaded last fall when Kevin Harvick and Busch essentially controlled the action most of the afternoon. The two drivers combined to lead 192 of the 200 laps with Harvick leading a race-high 127. Harvick was also out front when it mattered most, holding off Busch and the rest of the field to pick up the win.
The Favorites
He leads all drivers with 11 Nationwide wins in 2013, and Kyle Busch could certainly add to his impressive total this weekend. After all, he is going for a season sweep at Texas after winning the spring event, and he is a six-time winner at the track overall. Meanwhile, Busch has finished in the top five in 12 of his 15 Nationwide starts at Texas and has nine top-three finishes in his last 10 starts at the track, including six victories.
While he has never won a race at Texas, Brad Keselowski is no stranger to running near the front at the track. He has seven top-five finishes in his last eight starts at Texas, including a second-place finish earlier this year. Not to mention the fact that Keselowski has also won five of the last seven Nationwide races he has entered this year.
In 13 career Nationwide starts at Texas, Matt Kenseth has 12 top-10 finishes, including a pair of wins. He also has a 6.8 average finish at the track. Kenseth finished sixth at Texas earlier this year, and since the start of the 2007 season, he hasn’t finished worse than sixth in any Nationwide race at the track.
With Brian Vickers sidelined with a medical issue, Denny Hamlin will pilot the Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 machine this weekend. In 10 career Nationwide starts at Texas, Hamlin has finished in the top 15 on nine occasions. More importantly, he has finished in the top five in five of his last six starts at the track, including three straight.
The Dark Horses
Two-time Nationwide champ Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will make his first start of the season in the series this weekend at Texas, and he could return with a bang. After all, he has finished eighth or better in his last four Nationwide starts at Texas, posting a 4.8 average finish during the stretch. In his two most recent starts at Texas, Stenhouse has a pair of top-five finishes, including a win in the spring of 2012.
Although he is still looking for his first win of 20123, Austin Dillon rolls into Texas as the point leader. He also enters the race with the best record of any series regular at 1.5-mile tracks this season. At Texas specifically, Dillon has a 4.7 average finish in three starts, including a career-best third-place finish earlier this year. There is little doubt that he will be in the mix this weekend. Dillon just has to seal the deal.
Sleeper Special
He has never made a Nationwide start at Texas, but Ty Dillon could make a upset bid in his track debut this weekend. After all, he will be driving for a Richard Childress Racing No. 33 team that has delivered excellent results at the track in recent years with both Kevin Harvick and Paul Menard behind the wheel. Meanwhile, Dillon has managed four top-10s in 10 previous Nationwide starts so he hasn’t exactly struggled because of his lack if experience.
Big Name to Avoid
While he hasn’t run poorly at Texas by any means, Elliott Sadler has been trending in the wrong direction at the track recently. Since finishing fifth at the track in the spring of 2011, he has failed to crack the top five in his last four starts. Meanwhile, he has failed to even crack the top 10 in his last three starts at the track. Sadler has finished in the top 15 in all five races during the stretch, but a solid finish isn’t going to get the job done for bettors.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 AAA Texas 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 AAA Texas 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge
Kyle Busch 11/4
Brad Keselowski 17/4
Denny Hamlin 11/2
Matt Kenseth 11/2
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 6/1
Austin Dillon 12/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 12/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 14/1
Elliott Sadler 20/1
Regan Smith 20/1
Trevor Bayne 22/1
Justin Allgaier 25/1
Kyle Larson 33/1
Ty Dillon 33/1
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