2013 NRA 500 Free Picks – Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: The Cup Series heads to Texas Motor Speedway this weekend, and while several big names have put together stellar careers at the track, there have also been some surprises over the years. From Ryan Newman and Greg Biffle winning well before they were household names to Jeff Burton winning long after his best years were behind him, the fast, 1.5-mile oval has been known to produce on upset every now and then. With that in mind, here is a look at a few drivers with long odds to win Saturday night’s NRA 500 that could end up delivering a huge payout for bettors this weekend.
During his time with Roush Fenway Racing and Penske Championship Racing, Kurt Busch was always stout at Texas Motor Speedway. In 18 starts at the track from 2001 to 2011, he finished in the top 10 12 times, winning in the fall of 2009. More importantly, he was able to maintain solid results at the track last year despite driving for two different single-car teams. Busch finished 13th at the track in the spring of last year with Phoenix Racing and finished eighth in the fall with Furniture Row Racing. He is back with Furniture Row this season, and with a pair of top-five finishes under his belt already in 2013, Busch is showing he can contend with an underfunded team. Heading to one of his better tracks, Busch could be a steal at his current 40/1 odds.
Rookie Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is having a solid 2013 season and is sitting 15th in the standings six races into the year. However, he has yet to deliver an eye-popping performance and is still looking for his first top-10 finish. Stenhouse could change that in a big way this weekend as he heads to a Texas track where he won last year in the Nationwide Series. In fact, five of his eight Nationwide wins have come at tracks with the same 1.5-mile layout as Texas. More importantly, the Roush Fenway Racing organization that Stenhouse drives for has always been strong at Texas. Three different RFR drivers have won multiple races at the track, including defending race winner Greg Biffle. Given his inexperience in the Cup Series, Stenhouse is a 50/1 longshot to win this weekend, but he has the equipment and the past success at Texas in the Nationwide Series to make to deliver an immediate payout for bettors willing to take a chance on the rookie.
Although he didn’t have the best year at Texas last year, Paul Menard could still be worth considering at his current 66/1 odds. After all, he has still finished in the top 15 in three of his last five starts at the track, picking up a pair of top-10 finishes during the stretch. Menard also finished fifth in the spring race at Texas in 2011. Considering he has only seven total top-five finishes in 225 starts, Texas is obviously on the short list of tracks where Menard can even contend for a win. In general, he has had his best runs at 1.5-mile tracks, and in the first race of 2013 at a 1.5-mile track, he finished in the top 10. Menard has never been a driver that dominates races and leads a ton of laps, but he has been able to hang near the front on a consistent basis at tracks like Texas. The right pit strategy or a lucky break could be all it takes to turn a top-10 run into a surprise win, and given his long odds, even a small wager will yield a sizeable payout.
He has never been a consistent oval track racer, but Marcos Ambrose has had several solid runs at Texas throughout his career. In fact, he has finished in the top 15 in four of his last seven starts at the track, including a sixth-place finish in the spring of 2011. Ambrose probably won’t ever become as dominant at oval tracks as he is at the road courses, but he has shown more and more flashes of his talent on the traditional tracks in recent years. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t at an oval track win or two to his resume at some point in his career, and with Texas being one of his better tracks, Ambrose could be worth gambling on at his current 75/1 odds.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 NRA 500 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 NRA 500 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Odds to win the 2013 NRA 500
101 Jimmie Johnson +500
102 Kyle Busch +500
103 Kasey Kahne +900
104 Brad Keselowski +900
105 Greg Biffle +1500
106 Matt Kenseth +700
107 Carl Edwards +1000
108 Jeff Gordon +1200
109 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
110 Clint Bowyer +2500
111 Kevin Harvick +3000
112 Tony Stewart +1500
113 Martin Truex Jr +1800
114 Mark Martin +4000
115 Brian Vickers +3000
116 Joey Logano +3000
117 Ryan Newman +6000
118 Field +1200
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