2013 Hollywood Casino 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: The Cup Series returns to Kansas Speedway this weekend, and while the Chase hasn’t been kind to underdogs historically, the 1.5-mile track has been the one exception. Heck, Joe Nemechek one the very first Chase race at the track in 2004, and he only has four-career Cup wins in 644 starts. Mark Martin, Tony Stewart and Greg Biffle are some of the other non-Chasers to go to victory lane at Kansas. Heading to a track with a history of upsets, here is a closer look at a few underdogs that could be worth betting on this weekend at Kansas Speedway.
While he isn’t a huge underdog, Martin Truex Jr. is still a potential steal for bettors this weekend at his current 16/1 odds. After all, no driver has been better at Kansas since the start of the 2012 season. Truex has finished second, second and fourth in his last three starts at the 1.5-mile oval, leading more than 200 laps and leading the most laps in the spring race in 2012. He has also been the second-best driver in the series in the last 10 races at 1.5-mile tracks overall. There are several drivers currently favored ahead of Truex that haven’t come close to putting up those kinds of numbers.
The sample size is extremely small, but Ricky Stenhouse Jr. could be worth a flier this weekend at his current 66/1 odds. He made his first-ever Cup start at Kansas earlier this year, and he finished a rock solid 11th. Since his debut at the 1.5-mile track in April Stenhouse has steadily improved his overall performance. The rookie appears close to a true breakout performance, and it could come this weekend at Kansas.
Although he has been hit or miss as Tony Stewart’s replacement, but Mark Martin is still very underrated at his current 66/1 odds. Keep in mind that the veteran is a former winner at Kansas, and he finished in the top 10 at the track earlier this year. Meanwhile, he will be driving for a Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 team that has six top-15s, including a win, in seven starts at Kansas. The potential for a strong run is definitely there.
While he shouldn’t be among the favorites this weekend, Paul Menard deserved a lot better than his 100/1 odds to win. After all, he has finished 12th or better in four of his last six starts at Kansas. More importantly, he finished a career-best third at the track last fall and logged a top-10 earlier this year. Menard has been a top-10 driver at Kansas for the past couple of years, and he could be a huge steal at his current odds.
Bettors looking for a serious longshot this weekend should definitely consider Aric Almirola. For one, he finished a career-best eight at Kansas earlier this year. More importantly, he led 69 laps at the track last fall, and he probably had the best car on the track. After all, Almirola spun while running in the top five early in the race but managed to recover and roar back to the lead. He then spun again and ended his afternoon, but he blew through the field seemingly at will when he was on the track. He is worth a small wager at his current 150/1 odds.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Hollywood Casino 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 Hollywood Casino 400
101 Matt Kenseth +450
102 Jimmie Johnson +350
103 Kyle Busch +800
104 Kasey Kahne +800
105 Carl Edwards +1200
106 Brad Keselowski +1800
107 Greg Biffle +2500
108 Jeff Gordon +1500
109 Martin Truex Jr +2000
110 Clint Bowyer +2000
111 Joey Logano +1000
112 Kevin Harvick +1000
113 Kurt Busch +2500
114 Dale Earnhardt Jr +1400
115 Ryan Newman +4000
116 Denny Hamlin +2800
117 Brian Vickers +3500
118 Jamie McMurray +4000
119 Field +2200
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