2013 Ford EcoBoost 400 Free Picks: Betting on Underdogs for Big Payoffs: The 2013 Cup Series season comes to a close this weekend, and Homestead-Miami Speedway will host Sunday’s finale. The 1.5-mile oval has undergone multiple changes to its surface over the years, going from one-land track with flat corners, to a high-speed track with progressive banking. As a result of the changes, different drivers have dominated at Homestead over the years with each change helping some drivers and hurting others. Throw in the fact that heavy hitter Jimmie Johnson will simply be looking for a decent finish to secure a championship rather than a win, and the door is wide open for a surprise winner this weekend. With that in mind, here is a closer look at a few underdogs that have a chance to pull off an upset at Homestead Sunday and are worth a look from bettors.
Since becoming a full-time Cup driver in 2004, Martin Truex Jr. has been one of the best in the business at Homestead-Miami Speedway. He has a 6.7 average finish in seven starts at the track, and he has never finished worse than 11th. More importantly, he has finished sixth or better in four of his seven starts during the stretch, including two straight. In terms of points scored, Truex has been the fourth-best driver in the series during the seven races, but he is only getting 20/1 odds to win this weekend. He could definitely be a steal for bettors this weekend.
Although he has had a somewhat quiet 2013 season, it is still a surprise to see Greg Biffle only getting 25/1 odds to win this weekend at Homestead. After all, he is a three-time winner at the track, tying Tony Stewart for the most victories in track history. Granted, Biffle’s most recent victory at Homestead came in 2006, but he did finish in the top five at the track just last season. Considering no driver has been to victory lane at Homestead more than Biffle, he is definitely worth a look from bettors at his current odds.
His 17.0 average finish at Homestead isn’t great, but Ryan Newman has been a different driver at the track in recent years. He has compiled a 7.3 average finish in his last three starts at Homestead, finishing a career-best third at the track last season. Newman has also been on a bit of a roll in general lately, finishing in the top 10 in four of the five races leading up to Sunday’s finale, including two straight. He brings momentum in this weekend’s race, and given his recent hot streak at Homestead, Newman could end being a bargain at his current 33/1 odds.
Bettors looking for a serious longshots, have a couple of options to choose from this weekend. Both A.J. Allmendinger and Aric Almirola are getting to 150/1 odds to win Sunday, but both drivers have a history of success at Homestead. Allmendinger’s 10.3 average finish is actually the fourth best of any driver, and in four starts at the track, he has never finished outside the top 15 and has finished as high as fifth. Meanwhile, Almirola has finished fourth and seventh in his last two starts at the track while driving for two different teams. Neither driver has won a Cup a race, but Homestead has been one of the best tracks for both young drivers. Meanwhile, it only takes a small bet to yield a major payoff given the long odds of Allmendinger and Almirola.
Be sure to check the NSAwins.com Betting Daily Blog all week for updated 2013 Ford EcoBoost 400 odds, free tips, free picks, predictions and articles from NASCAR expert tipster Brian Polking. NSAwins.com is your home for 2013 Ford EcoBoost 400 Betting Odds and Handicapping coverage!
Driver Odds to win the 2013 Ford EcoBoost 400
Matt Kenseth +300
Kyle Busch +600
Kasey Kahne +900
Kevin Harvick +700
Brad Keselowski +700
Jeff Gordon +1400
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1400
Jimmie Johnson +1400
Denny Hamlin +1000
Joey Logano +1000
Carl Edwards +1800
Clint Bowyer +2500
Martin Truex Jr +1800
Kurt Busch +1200
Greg Biffle +3000
Ryan Newman +3500
Field +1800
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